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Examining Rational Bubbles in Oil Prices: Evidence From Frequency Domain Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Adedoyin Isola Lawal

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

  • Adeniyi Olayanju

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

  • Afeez Adebare Salisu

    (Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,)

  • Abiola John Asaleye

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

  • Olatunde Dahunsi

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

  • Oluwasogo Dada

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

  • Oluwasola Emmanel Omoju

    (Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.)

  • Olabisi Rasheedat Popoola

    (Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria,)

Abstract

This study examined the existence of rational bubbles in oil prices by employing a frequency domain econophysics technique that have capacity to identify both explosive behaviour and bubbles in oil prices for the three largest oil future markets WTI, Brent and OPEC basket. Our results show that the three prices experienced bubbles in four distinct periods. We attempt to provide some explanations on each of these bubbles using geopolitical, war and economic events. We equally noted that oil prices bubbles are largely influenced by the fact that oil is a major source of energy and is non-renewable. The study observed that existence of bubbles have some economic consequences such as welfare loss resulting from distortion in prices and economic instability among others. We provide some policy recommendation.

Suggested Citation

  • Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Adeniyi Olayanju & Afeez Adebare Salisu & Abiola John Asaleye & Olatunde Dahunsi & Oluwasogo Dada & Oluwasola Emmanel Omoju & Olabisi Rasheedat Popoola, 2019. "Examining Rational Bubbles in Oil Prices: Evidence From Frequency Domain Estimates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 166-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-02-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adämmer, Philipp & Bohl, Martin T., 2015. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 67-76.
    2. Babajide Abiola Ayopo & Lawal Adedoyin Isola & Somoye Russel Olukayode, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility: Does Our Fundamentals Matter?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 33-42.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid, 2016. "Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 66-78.
    5. Babajide Abiola Ayopo & Lawal Adedoyin Isola & Somoye Russel Olukayode, 2016. "Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 354-360.
    6. Almudhaf, Fahad, 2017. "Speculative bubbles and irrational exuberance in African stock markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 28-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lawal, Adedoyin Isola & Ozturk, Ilhan & Olanipekun, Ifedolapo O. & Asaleye, Abiola John, 2020. "Examining the linkages between electricity consumption and economic growth in African economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Afees Adebare Salisu & Abiola John Asaleye & Ezeikel Oseni & Bukola Bose Lawal-Adedoyin & Samuel Olatunde Dahunsi & Emmanuel Oluwasola Omoju & Abigail Oyeronke DickTonye & Eliza, 2022. "Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Remittance Nexus: Evidence from Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Adedoyin Isola LAWAL & Ezekiel OSENI & Abiola John ASALEYE & Bukola LAWAL-ADEDOYIN & Rachael OJEKA-JOHN, 2021. "Is the Stock Market Efficient? Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests for Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(5), pages 384-395, May.
    4. Abiola John Asaleye & Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Henry Egbezien Inegbedion & Adenike Omowumi Oladipo & Akinyomade O. Owolabi & Olayemi Moses Samuel & Chisaa Onyekachi Igbolekwu, 2021. "Electricity Consumption and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 195-201.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; rational bubbles; energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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