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The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

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  • Ahmet Ozcan

    (Department of Business Administration, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey)

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    Abstract

    In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 184-189

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    Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-02-6

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    Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

    Related research

    Keywords: Macroeconomic variables; ISE industry index; Johansen’s Cointegration Analysis;

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    1. Mohammed Nishat & Rozina Shaheen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 619-637.
    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521694681 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Black, Bernard S. & Gilson, Ronald J., 1998. "Venture capital and the structure of capital markets: banks versus stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 243-277, March.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    5. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Eleftheriou, Sophia, 2002. "Interest rates, inflation, and stock prices: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 231-236, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.

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