Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An econometric analysis of the output gap fluctuations: The case of Lebanon

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jean-François VERNE

    ()
    (Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Faculty of Business and Commercial Sciences)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper shows the reasons for output gap fluctuations in Lebanon during the period 1970-2009 and causal relationships between macroeconomic variables. It indicates that the output gap fluctuations, that measures observed GDP fluctuations around its long-run trend, can be explained by macroeconomic variables and war periods. By means of econometric methods, this research proposes to estimate the elasticity of the output gap with regard to others macroeconomic variables such as household consumption, expenditure government, gross fixed capital formation, and rate of economic dependence. Furthermore, it shows the causality direction between macroeconomic variables and the output gap in the short-run and in the long-run. The output gap is explained by all the macroeconomic variables in the long-run. But in the short-run, the output gap is explained by the household consumption expenditure only. In the short-run, the household consumption expenditure entails a decrease of output gap whereas it increases it in the long-run. In addition, the war does increase the output gap fluctuations.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I2-P143.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 1530-1547

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00173

    Contact details of provider:

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 703-712.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Some aspects of causal relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-71, January.
    3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    4. Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Roldos, Jorge E., 2001. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-239, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.