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Further evidence on the size and power of the Bierens and Johansen cointegration procedures

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  • David O. Cushman

    (University of Saskatchewan)

Abstract

Although both the Johansen (1991, 1994) trace test and Bierens (1997a,b) nonparametric lambda-min test for cointegration have good size properties in Monte Carlo studies by Hubrich, Lutkepohl, and Saikkonen (2001) and Boswijk, Lucas, and Taylor (2000), the Bierens test has very low power. In contrast, Bierens reports good power for his procedure. Meanwhile, Hubrich et al. and Boswijk et al. do not include Bierens' companion method for estimating the number of cointegrating vectors, nor do they investigate the effect of serial correlation on Bierens'' test. In the present paper, inclusion of the estimation step does not significantly degrade size of the Bierens procedure, even with serial correlation, but power is not improved. Serial correlation does degrade the size of the Johansen test, but it remains superior. Analysis of Bierens'' (1997b) Monte Carlo results suggests that their indication of high power reflects the test''s lack of scale invariance.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Cushman, 2003. "Further evidence on the size and power of the Bierens and Johansen cointegration procedures," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(25), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-03c30001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boswijk, H. Peter & Lucas, André & Taylor, Nick, 1998. "A comparison of parametric, semi-nonparametric, adaptive and nonparametric tests," Serie Research Memoranda 0062, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    5. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    6. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    8. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
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