IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/eerese/v4y2004i4_8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Time Series Test of Regional Convergence in the USA with Dynamic Panel Models, 1972-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Sedgley, N.
  • Elmslie, B.

Abstract

A good deal of controversy surrounds the empirical regularity of convergence. If capital’s share is taken to be 1/3, as in national accounts, then convergence should occur at a much faster rate than observed. Problems are worse if the economy is open. With perfect capital mobility convergence should occur at an infinite rate. Convergence estimates appear to be as slow for state economies as for national economies, even though the assumption of perfect capital mobility is a closer approximation of reality for these economies. Some argue that other variables, most prominently human capital, must be included in any cross sectional estimation of convergence. Supposedly, this addition of variables can bring the implied rate of convergence in line with empirical estimates by controlling for differences in the steady state level of per capita income. This paper extends the analysis of Islam (1995) to US states by estimating dynamic panel data models. This is a more appropriate method of allowing for different steady states. We find that the data suggests states converge very quickly, implying a high degree of capital mobility, if each state economy is allowed to have its own steady state captured through its own fixed effect. These results demonstrate the pitfalls of applying closed economy models to study growth in very open economies and the dangers of adding variables to the estimation which have, at best, only a weak relationship to differential steady states.

Suggested Citation

  • Sedgley, N. & Elmslie, B., 2004. "A Time Series Test of Regional Convergence in the USA with Dynamic Panel Models, 1972-1998," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:4:y2004:i:4_8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/eers421.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1993. "Solow and States: Capital Accumulation, Productivity, and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 46(4), pages 425-439, December.
    5. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1993. "Solow and States: Capital Accumulation, Productivity, and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(4), pages 425-39, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sonali DAS , Rangan GUPTA & Patrick A. KAYA, 2010. "Convergence Of Metropolitan House Prices In South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Efficient Unit Root Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    2. Timothy C. Ford & Jonathan C. Rork & Bruce T. Elmslie, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, and the Human Capital Threshold: Evidence from US States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 96-113, February.
    3. Mukherjee, D., 2006. "Is the Rate of ‘Convergence’ Always Constant? Some Empirical Evidence from Sector Level Data of 56 countries, 1975-99," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    4. Aye, G.C. & Goswami, S. & Gupta, R., 2013. "Metropolitan House Prices In Regions of India: Do They Converge?," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 135-144.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Metropolitan House Prices In India: Do They Converge?," Working Papers 201220, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    2. Valerien O. Pede & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Henri L. F. De Groot, 2007. "Technological Leadership, Human Capital and Economic Growth: a Spatial Econometric Analysis for US Counties, 1969-2003," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 87-88, pages 103-124.
    3. Angel De la Fuente, 2010. "Infrastructures and productivity: an updated survey," Working Papers 1018, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Pede, Valerien O. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & de Groot, Henri L.F., 2006. "The Role of Knowledge Externalities in the Spatial Distribution of Economic Growth: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for US Counties, 1969-2003," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21157, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Steven Yamarik, 2011. "Human capital and state-level economic growth: what is the contribution of schooling?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 195-211, August.
    6. Steven Yamarik, 2006. "Solow and the states: New evidence," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 571-582.
    7. David N Wear & Jeffrey P Prestemon, 2019. "Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "From socialist showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the role of technical change from East Germany's post-World War II growth performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 485-514, December.
    9. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    10. repec:elg:eechap:14395_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Deeken, Tim, 2015. "Schumpeterian growth with technological interdependence: An application to US states," Working Paper Series in Economics 75, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Jacob Assa & Ingrid H. Kvangraven, 2018. "Imputing Away the Ladder: Implications of Changes in National Accounting Standards for Assessing Inter-country Inequalities," Working Papers 1813, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Jonathan Temple, 1995. "Testing the augmented Solow Model," Economics Papers 18 & 106., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Nikos Benos & Nikolaos Mylonidis & Stefania Zotou, 2017. "Estimating production functions for the US states: the role of public and human capital," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 691-721, March.
    15. Voxi Heinrich S Amavilah, 2004. "Human Capital: Infrastructural and Superstructural Constraints to Economic Performance across U.S. Native American Reservations and Trust Lands," GE, Growth, Math methods 0405001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Voxi Heinrich S Amavilah, 2005. "Human Capital and Income across U.S. Native American Reservations and Trust Lands," GE, Growth, Math methods 0505001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bhatt, Ayushman & Kato, Hironori, 2021. "High-speed rails and knowledge productivity: A global perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 174-186.
    18. Duczynski, Petr, 2002. "Adjustment costs in a two-capital growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 837-850, May.
    19. Voxi Heinrich S Amavilah & Richard T. Newcomb, 2004. "Economic Growth and the Financial Economics of Capital Accumulation under Shifting Technological Change," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    21. Miwa, Norihiro & Bhatt, Ayushman & Morikawa, So & Kato, Hironori, 2022. "High-Speed rail and the knowledge economy: Evidence from Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 398-416.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergence; Time Series Analysis; Regional Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:4:y2004:i:4_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.