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Beeinflusst die Mitgliedschaft im Euroraum den Zusammenhang von BIP-Wachstum und öffentlicher Verschuldung?

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Hans-Eggert Reimers

Abstract

We analyse the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and real per capita GDP growth for euro area members and a broader set of industrial countries by distinguishing periods of sustainable and non-sustainable debt. Thresholds for debt are theory-driven and depend on-macroeconomic conditions. If the nominal interest rate exceeds nominal output growth, primary budget surpluses are required to achieve a sustainable government debt ratio. The negative impact of the debt-to-GDP ratio is limited to the euro area and periods of non sustainable public debt. In the broader panel of industrial countries, the negative debt effect diminishes. Instead, debt will exert a positive impact on growth given that it is sustainable. This result is fairly robust and holds even for exogenous thresholds. While the relationship between debt and growth is subject to nonlinearities, the evidence suggests that the participation in monetary union might entail an additional risk for its members. In diesem Beitrag wird die Beziehung zwischen der Schuldenquote des Staates und dem realen BIP-Wachstum pro Kopf für die Mitgliedstaaten des Euroraums und einer Reihe weiterer Industrieländer untersucht. Dabei wird zwischen Perioden eines nachhaltigen und nicht-nachhaltigen Schuldenstandes differenziert. Liegt die Nominalverzinsung über dem nominalen Wachstum, sind Primärüberschüsse in den öffentlichen Haushalten erforderlich, um den Schuldenstand zu stabilisieren. Die Analyse zeigt, dass sich eine steigende Verschuldung negativ auf das Wachstum auswirkt. Ob der Schuldenstand nachhaltig ist oder nicht, spielt nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Allerdings ist der negative Einfluss auf den Euroraum beschränkt. In einer breiteren Gruppe von Industrieländern sind keine negativen Auswirkungen steigender Schuldenquoten erkennbar. Offenbar kann die Mitgliedschaft in der Währungsunion ein zusätzliches Risiko für die beteiligten Staaten nach sich ziehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2013. "Beeinflusst die Mitgliedschaft im Euroraum den Zusammenhang von BIP-Wachstum und öffentlicher Verschuldung?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(2), pages 51-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:82-2-5
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.82.2.51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area debt crisis; debt and growth; sustainability of debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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