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Europäischer geldpolitischer Exit im Zeichen von QE2 und Staatsanleihekäufen der EZB


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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Gunther Schnabl


A sequence of crises and emergency interest rate cuts has moved global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. We discuss the available options to exit from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, we shed light on the probability of a coordinated exit from expansionary monetary policies across the Atlantic. Second, we assess the options of coordinating the supranational monetary policy with national fiscal policies in the European Monetary Union. Third, we investigate the quasi-fiscal activities of the European Central Bank in the context of outright government bond purchases and, even more important, within its normal operations. We conclude that-due to the complexity of the coordination task-the coordination of the non-exit is more likely than any coordination of the exit. Wandernde Blasen, Krisen und hektische geldpolitische Rettungsaktionen haben das globale Zinsniveau gegen Null und die Staatsverschuldung in den großen Industrieländern auf historische Rekordstände gebracht. Das Papier analysiert die Optionen für den Exit aus Niedrigzinspolitiken und nicht nachhaltiger Staatsverschuldung im Lichte einer exzessiven geldpolitischen Lockerung in den USA (QE2). Der Exit aus den expansiven Geldpolitiken wird aus drei Perspektiven analysiert. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines koordinierten Exits von Fed und EZB, der koordinierte Exit von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der EWU sowie das Auslaufen quasifiskalischer Aktivitäten der EZB. Die Analyse kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass aufgrund der sehr komplexen Herausforderungen die Koordinierung des "Nicht-Exits" wahrscheinlicher als die Koordinierung des Exits ist.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 79 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 147-161

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:79-4-11

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; fiscal policy; financial crisis; international policy coordination; exit;

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Cited by:
  1. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  2. Jörg Asmussen & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Umbruch im Weltwährungssystem: Sollte die Zeit freier Wechselkurse beendet werden?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(07), pages 03-09, 04.


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