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Combining Parametric And Non-Parametric Methods To Compute Value-At-Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Ramon ALEMANY

    (Dept. of Econometrics, Riskcenter - IREA, University of Barcelona)

  • Catalina BOLANCÉ

    (Dept. of Econometrics, Riskcenter - IREA, University of Barcelona)

  • Montserrat GUILLÉN

    (Dept. of Econometrics, Riskcenter - IREA, University of Barcelona)

  • Alemar E. PADILLA-BARRETO

    (Dept. of Econometrics, Riskcenter - IREA, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

We design a system for calculating the quantile of a random variable that allows us combining parametric and non-parametric estimation methods. This approach is applicable to evaluate the severity of potential losses from existing data records; therefore, it is useful in many areas of economics and risk evaluation. The procedure is based on an initial parametric model assumption and then a nonparametric correction is introduced. In addition, a second correction is proposed so that the value at risk estimator is asymptotically optimal. Our procedure allows smoothing the tail behavior of the empirical distribution. Due to the lack of sample information for extreme values, smoothness in the tail cannot be achieved if classical nonparametric estimators are used. We apply this method to a real problem in the area of motor insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon ALEMANY & Catalina BOLANCÉ & Montserrat GUILLÉN & Alemar E. PADILLA-BARRETO, 2016. "Combining Parametric And Non-Parametric Methods To Compute Value-At-Risk," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 61-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:cys:ecocyb:v:50:y:2016:i:4:p:61-74
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarabia, José María & Guillén, Montserrat, 2008. "Joint modelling of the total amount and the number of claims by conditionals," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 466-473, December.
    2. Bolance, Catalina & Guillen, Montserrat & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2003. "Kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-36, February.
    3. Bolance, Catalina & Guillen, Montserrat & Pelican, Elena & Vernic, Raluca, 2008. "Skewed bivariate models and nonparametric estimation for the CTE risk measure," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 386-393, December.
    4. Guillen, Montserrat & Prieto, Faustino & Sarabia, José María, 2011. "Modelling losses and locating the tail with the Pareto Positive Stable distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 454-461.
    5. Bolancé, Catalina & Guillén, Montserrat & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2008. "Inverse beta transformation in kernel density estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(13), pages 1757-1764, September.
    6. Alemany, Ramon & Bolancé, Catalina & Guillén, Montserrat, 2013. "A nonparametric approach to calculating value-at-risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 255-262.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantile; nonparametric; loss models; extremes; risk evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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