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The terms of trade for agricultural and food products, 1951-2000

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  • Serrano, Raúl
  • Pinilla, Vicente

Abstract

This study aims to answer whether empirical records confirm the existence of a secular decline in the terms of trade affecting primary producers (the Singer–Prebisch hypothesis). The paper analyses the evolution of the terms of trade for agricultural and food products in the second half of the 20th century. We obtain sixty new real price indices for internationally traded agricultural products. We conclude, from a long-term perspective, that the deterioration in the terms of trade for agricultural and food products was strong and clear in the second half of the last century. In general, less processed products suffered a very heavy fall in their real prices. However, there was no continuous and persistent deterioration in the terms of trade either as a whole or for the great majority of the agricultural and food product groups (with the exception of natural rubber, textile fibres and other raw materials). Rather, this deterioration occurred in stages.

Suggested Citation

  • Serrano, Raúl & Pinilla, Vicente, 2011. "The terms of trade for agricultural and food products, 1951-2000," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 213-243, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:reveco:v:29:y:2011:i:02:p:213-243_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Llorca-Jaña, 2014. "The impact of early nineteenth-century globalization on foreign trade in the Southern Cone: A study of British trade statistics," Investigaciones de Historia Económica - Economic History Research (IHE-EHR), Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociación Española de Historia Económica, vol. 10(01), pages 46-56.
    2. Vicente Pinilla, 2018. "Agriocliometrics and Agricultural Change in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 1803, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    3. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vicente Pinilla & Henry Willebald, 2021. "Transition and Change in World Agriculture during the Interwar Years," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 2109, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    5. Raú l Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2012. "The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4199-4210, November.
    6. Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2014. "New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963–2000," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Andersson, Martin & Rohne Till, Emelie, 2017. "Between the Engine and the Fifth Wheel: An Analytical Survey of the Shifting Roles of Agriculture in Development Theory," Lund Papers in Economic History 163, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    8. Raúl Serranoa & Vicente Pinilla, 2010. "The Evolution and Changing Geographical Structure of World Agri-food Trade, 1950-2000," Working Papers 10-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    9. Pinilla, Vicente & Serranoz, Raul, 2008. "The agricultural and food trade in the first globalisation: Spanish table wine exports 1871 to 1935 – a case study," Working Papers 42657, American Association of Wine Economists.
    10. Miguel Martín-Retortillo & Vicente Pinilla & Jackeline Velazco & Henry Willebald, 2016. "The dynamics of latin american agricultural production growth, 1950-2008," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 1610, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    11. Miguel Tinoco-Zermeño & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Víctor Torres-Preciado, 2014. "Growth, bank credit, and inflation in Mexico: evidence from an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Henry Willebald & Marc Badia-Miró & Vicente Pinilla, 2015. "Natural Resources and Economic Development. Some lessons from History," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 1504, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    13. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2019. "Long Term Drivers of Global Virtual Water Trade: A Trade Gravity Approach for 1965–2010," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 318-326.
    14. Miguel Martín-Retortillo & Vicente Pinilla, 2013. "Patterns and causes of growth of European agricultural production, 1950-2005," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 1302, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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