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The Information Content of Sudden Insider Silence

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  • Hong, Claire Yurong
  • Li, Frank Weikai

Abstract

We present evidence of investors underreacting to the absence of events in financial markets. Routine-based insiders strategically choose to be silent when they possess private information not yet reflected in stock prices. Consistent with our hypothesis, insider silence following a routine sell (buy) predicts positive (negative) future returns, as well as fundamentals. The return predictability of insider silence is stronger among firms with a poor information environment and facing higher arbitrage costs, and a large fraction of abnormal returns concentrates on future earnings announcements. A long–short strategy that exploits insiders’ strategic silence behavior generates abnormal returns of 6% to 10% annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Claire Yurong & Li, Frank Weikai, 2019. "The Information Content of Sudden Insider Silence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 1499-1538, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:04:p:1499-1538_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Han-Ching Huang & Ren-Cyuan Chan, 2021. "Decoding insider silence: evidence from China securities market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 581-599, December.
    2. Li, Xiao, 2020. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on insider trades: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 41-57.
    3. Chen, Hsuan-Chi & Chou, Robin K. & Lu, Chien-Lin, 2021. "Misvaluation and the corporate propensity to hold cash," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Han-Ching Huang & Shan-He Huang, 2022. "The Difference Between Conditional and Unconditional Insider Silence Effect: Evidence from China," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 1-5.
    5. Fu, Xudong & Kong, Lei & Tang, Tian & Yan, Xinyan, 2020. "Insider trading and shareholder investment horizons," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Han-Ching Huang & Tammy Tran Chung, 2020. "The Information Content of Insider Silence in Vietnam Security Market," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-9.
    7. Han-Ching Huang & Guan-Yu Chen, 2024. "The Performance Analysis of Trading Strategies Based on Insider Silence," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(2), pages 1-4.
    8. Neupane, Biwesh & Thapa, Chandra & Marshall, Andrew & Neupane, Suman, 2021. "Mimicking insider trades," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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