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Probability Weighting and Employee Stock Options

Author

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  • Spalt, Oliver G.

Abstract

This paper documents that riskier firms with higher idiosyncratic volatility grant more stock options to nonexecutive employees. Standard models in the literature cannot easily explain this pattern; a model in which a risk-neutral firm and an employee with prospect theory preferences bargain over the employee's pay package can. The key feature which makes stock options attractive is probability weighting. The model fits the data on option grants well when calibrated using standard parameters from the experimental literature. The results are the first evidence that risky firms can profitably use stock options to cater to an employee demand for long-shot bets.

Suggested Citation

  • Spalt, Oliver G., 2013. "Probability Weighting and Employee Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1085-1118, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:48:y:2013:i:04:p:1085-1118_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Canil, Jean & Karpavičius, Sigitas, 2018. "Are employee stock option proceeds a source of finance for investment?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 468-483.
    2. Huber, Stefanie J. & Schmidt, Tobias, 2022. "Nevertheless, they persist: Cross-country differences in homeownership behavior," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Hamza Bahaji, 2018. "Are employee stock option exercise decisions better explained through the prospect theory?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 335-359, March.
    4. Víctor González-Jiménez, 2021. "Incentive contracts when agents distort probabilities," Vienna Economics Papers vie2101, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    5. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13098 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Victor H. Gonzalez-Jimenez, 2019. "Contracting Probability Distortions," Vienna Economics Papers vie1901, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    8. Víctor González-Jiménez, 2021. "Incentive contracts when agents distort probabilities," Vienna Economics Papers 2101, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    9. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David & Tse, Alex S.L., 2018. "Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 360-397.
    10. Gu, Leilei & Li, Jianjun & Ni, Xiaoran & Peng, Yuchao, 2023. "The long shadow beyond lockdown: Board chairs’ professional pandemic experiences and corporate investments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 522-541.
    11. Victor H. Gonzalez-Jimenez, 2019. "Contracting Probability Distortions," Vienna Economics Papers 1901, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    12. Chen, Zhanhui & Huang, Xiaoran & Zhang, Lei, 2022. "Local gender imbalance and corporate risk-taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 650-672.
    13. Chuluunbat Tsendsuren & Prayag L. Yadav & Seung Hun Han & Seongjae Mun, 2021. "The effect of corporate environmental responsibility and religiosity on corporate cash holding decisions and profitability: Evidence from the United States' policies for sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 987-1000, September.
    14. Schneider, C.A.R. & Spalt, Oliver, 2016. "Conglomerate investment, skewness, and the CEO long shot bias," Other publications TiSEM 5d9321e2-35ea-40f9-9eae-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Hu, Xinwen & Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Wang, Chuanjie, 2023. "The green fog: Environmental rating disagreement and corporate greenwashing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Chang, Xin & Fu, Kangkang & Low, Angie & Zhang, Wenrui, 2015. "Non-executive employee stock options and corporate innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 168-188.
    17. Martin Widdicks & Jinsha Zhao, 2014. "A Model of Equity Based Compensation with Tax," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 1002-1041, September.
    18. Bahaji, Hamza & Casta, Jean-François, 2016. "Employee stock option-implied risk attitude under Rank-Dependent Expected Utility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 144-154.
    19. Sun, Lei & Widdicks, Martin, 2016. "Why do employees like to be paid with Options?: A multi-period prospect theory approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 106-125.
    20. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    21. Adhikari, Binay Kumar & Agrawal, Anup, 2016. "Religion, gambling attitudes and corporate innovation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 229-248.
    22. Izhakian, Yehuda & Yermack, David, 2017. "Risk, ambiguity, and the exercise of employee stock options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 65-85.
    23. Mburu, Henry Kimani & Tang, Alex P., 2018. "The adoption of voluntary clawback provisions and the broader commitment hypothesis," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 60-69.
    24. Azmat, Saad & Kabir Hassan, M. & Ali, Haiqa & Sohel Azad, A.S.M., 2021. "Religiosity, neglected risk and asset returns: Theory and evidence from Islamic finance industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    25. Chen, Yangyang & Murgulov, Zoltan & Rhee, S. Ghon & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2016. "Religious beliefs and local government financing, investment, and cash holding decisions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 258-271.

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