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A Note On Spurious Break

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  • Bai, Jushan

Abstract

When the disturbances of a regression model follow an I(1) process there is a tendency to estimate a break point in the middle of the sample, even though a break point does not actually exist. In this note, we provide a mathematical proof for this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Jushan, 1998. "A Note On Spurious Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 663-669, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:14:y:1998:i:05:p:663-669_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Jamel JOUINI & Mohamed BOUTAHAR, 2007. "wrong estimation of the true number of shifts in structural break models: Theoretical and numerical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-10.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Guégan, Dominique, 2012. "Breaks or long memory behavior: An empirical investigation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5712-5726.
    5. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    6. Marriott, John & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
    8. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2009. "Breaks or Long Memory Behaviour: An empirical Investigation," Post-Print halshs-00377485, HAL.
    10. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    11. Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2001. "Change point estimation in regressions with I(d) variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 147-155, February.
    12. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    13. Jamel JOUINI & Mohamed BOUTAHAR, 2007. "Spuriousness of information criteria when selecting the number of breaks in stationary AR(p) process," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(38), pages 1-11.
    14. Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2008. "Change-point estimation of nonstationary I(d) processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 115-121, February.
    15. Chang, Seong Yeon, 2021. "Estimation of a level shift in panel data with fractionally integrated errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
    17. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:38:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Walter Kramer & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2002. "Testing for Structural Changes in the Presence of Long Memory," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(3), pages 235-242, December.
    21. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2014. "A joint test for structural stability and a unit root in autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 577-587.
    22. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2011. "Joint Detection of Structural Change and Nonstationarity in Autoregressions," MPRA Paper 29189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 127145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    24. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    25. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2007. "Which is the best model for the US inflation rate: a structural changes model or a long memory process?," Post-Print halshs-00188309, HAL.

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