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Statistiscal Analysis of the Spreads of Catastrophe Bonds at the Time of Issue

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  • Papachristou, Dimitris

Abstract

In this paper the catastrophe bond prices, as determined by the market, are analysed. The limited published work in this area has been carried out mainly by cat bond investors and is based either on intuition, or on simple linear regression on one factor or on comparisons of the process of cat bonds with similar features. In this paper a Generalised Additive Model is fitted to the market data. The statistical significance of different factors which may affect the cat bond prices is examined and the effect of these factors on the prices is measured. A statistical framework and analysis ould provide insight into the cat bond pricing and could have applications among other things in the construction of a cat bond portfolio, cat bond price indices and in understanding changes of the price of risk over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Papachristou, Dimitris, 2011. "Statistiscal Analysis of the Spreads of Catastrophe Bonds at the Time of Issue," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 251-277, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:41:y:2011:i:01:p:251-277_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    2. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Hard markets, hard times: On the inefficiency of the CAT bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
    4. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 140-162.
    5. Dixon Domfeh & Arpita Chatterjee & Matthew Dixon, 2022. "A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives," Papers 2205.04520, arXiv.org.
    6. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai & Anne-Sophie Charest, 2017. "CAT Bond Spreads Via HARA Utility and Nonparametric Tests," Working Papers 2017-002, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2021. "Seasonality in catastrophe bonds and market‐implied catastrophe arrival frequencies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 785-818, September.
    8. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111529, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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