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Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019

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  • Cristina Isabel Ramos Barroso
  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro

Abstract

La credibilidad fiscal constituye un elemento importante en la generación de escenarios propicios para la inversión y el crecimiento económico. La adecuada gestión de las finanzas públicas puede ser determinante en la percepción de riesgo país y la atracción de capital extranjero. El propósito de este trabajo es construir un índice de credibilidad fiscal y evaluar su impacto sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia para el periodo 2005-2019. Con datos mensuales de la credibilidad fiscal, las expectativas de inversión y un grupo de variables control, se realizaron estimaciones mediante los métodos OLS y GMM. Además, se hicieron pruebas de robustez, mediante funciones impulso-respuesta. Los hallazgos revelan que, en efecto, la credibilidad fiscal influye de forma directa en las decisiones de inversión de los agentes privados en Colombia. También se encuentra que la tasa de interés local y la volatilidad internacional afectan negativamente las expectativas de los inversionistas.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Isabel Ramos Barroso & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 92(8), pages 273-315, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:020527
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    File URL: https://revistas.uniandes.edu.co/doi/pdf/10.13043/DYS.92.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credibilidad fiscal; inversión; finanzas públicas; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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