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Analysis Of Forecasting Methods From The Point Of View Of Early Warning Concept In Project Management

Author

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  • Florin POPESCU

    (Doctoral School - Entrepreneurship, Business Engineering & Management; University “Politehnica” of Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Early warning system (EWS) based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin POPESCU, 2017. "Analysis Of Forecasting Methods From The Point Of View Of Early Warning Concept In Project Management," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 15, pages 331-346, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmj:seapas:y:2017:i:15:p:331-346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M Vanhoucke & S Vandevoorde, 2007. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1361-1374, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early warning; Forecasting methods; Project management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General

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