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Forecasting value-at-risk using time varying copulas and EVT return distributions

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  • Theo Berger

Abstract

Forecasting portfolio risk requires both, estimation of marginal return distributions for individual assets and the dependence structure of returns as well. In this paper, we concentrate on Value at Risk as a popular risk measure and combine elliptical copulas with time varying Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) matrices and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) based models for the marginal return distributions. The approach leads to reliable Value-at-Risk figures with respect to several backtesting criteria. Feasibility and accuracy of the approach is corroborated by an extensive empirical application to different financial portfolios consisting of stocks, market indices and FX-rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Theo Berger, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk using time varying copulas and EVT return distributions," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 133, pages 93-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2013-q1-133-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj, 2016. "Oil price and FX-rates dependency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 477-488, March.
    2. Berger, Theo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "On the dynamic dependence between equity markets, commodity futures and economic uncertainty indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 374-383.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Gualtero-Briceño, Daniela & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2021. "Estimating the Value at Risk of a bank’s portfolio in sovereign bonds using a DCC-Copula model," Working papers 75, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ali, Sajid & Ameer, Saba, 2016. "Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 8-33.
    5. Berger, Theo, 2016. "On the isolated impact of copulas on risk measurement: Asimulation study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 475-481.
    6. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yahya, Muhammad, 2022. "Systemic risk contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions across frequencies: The Australian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Boubaker, Sabri & Moussa, Faten, 2023. "Does green improve portfolio optimisation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Berger, Theo, 2015. "A wavelet based approach to measure and manage contagion at different time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 338-350.
    9. Sahamkhadam, Maziar & Stephan, Andreas & Östermark, Ralf, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on GARCH-EVT-Copula forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-506.
    10. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Saralees Nadarajah & Stephen Chan, 2021. "A Statistical Analysis of Global Economies Using Time Varying Copulas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1167-1194, December.
    11. Berger, Theo & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Improving daily Value-at-Risk forecasts: The relevance of short-run volatility for regulatory quality assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 30-46.
    12. Cui, Yan & Feng, Yun, 2020. "Composite hedge and utility maximization for optimal futures hedging," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 15-32.
    13. Theo Berger & Christina Uffmann, 2021. "Assessing liquidity‐adjusted risk forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1179-1189, November.
    14. Hong Qiu & Genhua Hu & Yuhong Yang & Jeffrey Zhang & Ting Zhang, 2020. "Modeling the Risk of Extreme Value Dependence in Chinese Regional Carbon Emission Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    15. Stelios Bekiros & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2018. "Sovereign bond market dependencies and crisis transmission around the eurozone debt crisis: a dynamic copula approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(47), pages 5031-5049, October.
    16. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    17. Rewat Khanthaporn, 2022. "Analysis of Nonlinear Comovement of Benchmark Thai Government Bond Yields," PIER Discussion Papers 183, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Han, Yingwei & Li, Ping & Xia, Yong, 2017. "Dynamic robust portfolio selection with copulas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-200.
    19. Berger, T. & Missong, M., 2014. "Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio value-at-risk; Elliptical copulas; Dynamic conditional correlations; Extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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