IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v69y2016i22p57-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Das ifo Institut hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Zuwachsrate der Stundenproduktivität überschätzt. Der wesentliche Grund hierfür sind zu pessimistische Erwerbstätigenprognosen. Mögliche Erklärungsansätze sind strukturelle, von der Konjunktur unabhängige Veränderungen in der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, die in den ökonometrischen Konjunktur- bzw. Prognosemodellen nicht oder nur unzureichend berücksichtigt wurden. Die möglichen Erklärungsansätze dürften auch für andere Prognoseinstitutionen gelten, da auch die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, der Sachverständigenrat und die Europäische Kommission systematisch zu hohe Produktivitätsprognosen abgaben.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:57-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2016-22-lehmann-wollmershaeuser-stundenproduktivitaet-2016-11-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hermann Gartner & Sabine Klinger, 2010. "Verbesserte Institutionen für den Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(11), pages 728-734, November.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Steffen Henzel & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "The Ifo Employment Barometer and the German Labour Market," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(15), pages 35-40, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017/2018: Germany’s Economy Is Strong and Stable," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2016–2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    3. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017–2019: German Economy on Track to Boom," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Anna-Pauliina, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(12), pages 25-78, June.
    5. Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber & Jannik André Nauerth, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 84.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Jochen Güntner & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif & Ra, 2018. "ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2018: Storm Clouds Gather over German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 33-87, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susanne Wanger & Roland Weigand & Ines Zapf, 2016. "Measuring hours worked in Germany – Contents, data and methodological essentials of the IAB working time measurement concept [Die Berechnung der geleisteten Arbeitsstunden in Deutschland – Inhalte,," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(3), pages 213-238, November.
    2. Sebastian Schmitz, 2019. "The Effects of Germany's Statutory Minimum Wage on Employment and Welfare Dependency," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 330-355, August.
    3. Gartner, Hermann & Stüber, Heiko, 2019. "Strukturwandel am Arbeitsmarkt seit den 70er Jahren: Arbeitsplatzverluste werden durch neue Arbeitsplätze immer wieder ausgeglichen (Structural change on the labor market since the 70s : The destructi," IAB-Kurzbericht 201913, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Dietz, Martin & Stops, Michael & Walwei, Ulrich, 2012. "Securing Jobs in Times of Recession. The German Experience during the Financial Crisis 2008/2009/Asegurando los puestos de trabajo en tiempos de recesión. La experiencia alemana durante la crisis fina," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 59-100, Abril.
    5. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    6. Bauer, Anja & Gartner, Hermann, 2014. "Mismatch-Arbeitslosigkeit: Wie Arbeitslose und offene Stellen zusammenpassen (Mismatch unemployment : How unemployed and vacancies fit)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201405, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Marcel GARZ, 2013. "Employment and wages in Germany since the 2004 deregulation of the temporary agency industry," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 152(2), pages 307-326, June.
    8. Marianna Schaubert, 2023. "Do Alimony Regulations Matter Inside Marriage? Evidence from the 2008 Reform of the German Maintenance Law," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 145-178, June.
    9. Wolter, Marc Ingo & Mönnig, Anke & Hummel, Markus & Schneemann, Christian & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd & Helmrich, Robert & Maier, Tobias & Neuber-Pohl, Caroline, 2015. "Industry 4.0 and the consequences for labour market and economy : scenario calculations in line with the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections (Industrie 4.0 und die Folgen für Ar," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201508_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2017. "Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 279-283, February.
    11. Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber & Jannik André Nauerth, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 106, October.
    12. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    13. Hamann, Silke & Jahn, Daniel & Thoma, Oliver & Wapler, Rüdiger & Wittenburg, Stefan, 2015. "Übergänge von Arbeitslosigkeit in Beschäftigung," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Baden-Württemberg 201501, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Marco Caliendo & Jens Hogenacker, 2012. "The German labor market after the Great Recession: successful reforms and future challenges," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    16. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    17. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    18. Schaubert, Marianna, 2018. "Do Alimony Regulations Matter inside Marriage? Evidence from the 2008 Reform of the German Maintenance Law," EconStor Preprints 173193, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Schaubert, Marianna, 2018. "Do Alimony Regulations Matter inside Marriage? Evidence from the 2008 Reform of the German Maintenance Law," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181508, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201705, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:57-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.