IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v69y2016i22p34-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wie gefährlich ist die angekündigte Handelspolitik von Donald Trump?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Marina Steininger

Abstract

Die Wahl von Donald Trump zum 45. Präsidenten der USA am 8. November 2016 stellt die europäischen Partner vor einige Herausforderungen. Im Wahlkampf hat Trump eine protektionistische Handelspolitik angekündigt, um gegen unliebsame Handelspartner höhere Zoll- und andere Schranken zu errichten. Simulationen mit dem ifo-Handelsmodell zeigen, dass eine Abschottung der USA mit erheblichen Wohlstandsverlusten für das Land verbunden wäre. Das BIP würde um bis zu 9% sinken, wenn die USA Importzölle von 45% und nicht-tarifäre Barrieren von 15% gegenüber allen Handelspartnern erheben und diese mit denselben Hemmnissen zurückschlagen würden. In Deutschland würde der Elektroniksektor aufgrund von Handelsumlenkungen profitieren, der Automobilsektor und der Maschinenbau dann, wenn die USA nur gegenüber China und Mexiko Zölle erheben würden. Die meisten anderen Sektoren würden jedoch verlieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2016. "Wie gefährlich ist die angekündigte Handelspolitik von Donald Trump?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 34-41, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:34-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2016-22-felbermayr-steininger-trump-protektionismus-2016-11-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    2. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    3. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Rahel Aichele & Inga Heiland, 2016. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised," ifo Working Paper Series 219, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2013. "The Value-Added Content of International Trade: New Data, New Perspectives," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(05), pages 29-41, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2017. "Expectations of German Companies on Donald Trump’s Trade Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 61-63, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    2. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kimura, Fukunari & Okubo, Toshihiro & Steininger, Marina, 2019. "Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 110-128.
    4. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    5. Oliver Krebs & Michael Pflüger, 2018. "How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 171-222, February.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "Economic Analysis of TTIP," ifo Working Paper Series 215, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2015. "TTIP and Developing Countries: Threats, Potential and Policy Options," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), January.
    10. Victor Suslov & Naimdzhon Ibragimov & Larisa Mel'nikova, 2018. "Coalition Analysis and Effects of Regional Integration," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1131-1144.
    11. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    12. Jung, Benjamin, 2015. "Allocational efficiency with heterogeneous firms: Disentangling love of variety and market power," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 141-143.
    13. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    14. Evgeny N. Smirnov & Sergey A. Lukyanov, 2021. "Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(5), pages 21-31, November.
    15. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades," NBER Working Papers 21768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    17. Krolikowski, Pawel M. & McCallum, Andrew H., 2021. "Goods-market frictions and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. repec:gnv:wpaper:unige:77631 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2021. "Die Auswirkungen des Brexit auf Österreichs Wirtschaft," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66782, Juni.
    20. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    21. Iliev, Dragomir & Stefanov, Galin & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Bulgaria’S Trade Borders With The Eu An Application Of The Empirical Gravity Model Of Trade," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1-3.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:34-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.