IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v69y2016i12p58-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electric Motors, Energy Supply and Education: the Quality of Ifo’s Production-Side Short-Term Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Franziska Fobbe
  • Robert Lehmann

Abstract

Forecasts of overall economic output by economic sector have been a key building block of every economic forecast for some time. To make such forecasts, the Ifo Institute applies the IFOCAST approach developed in-house. This article takes a critical look at the forecasting quality of the production-side forecasts published by the Ifo Institute. Ifo’s forecasts can be attributed a high level of accuracy. The quality of its gross domestic product, manufacturing and construction forecasting is particularly high. There is, however, scope for improvement in a few segments of the service sector. Such an improvement could be achieved via a more systematic use of the survey indicators for the service sector from the Ifo Business Survey.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Electric Motors, Energy Supply and Education: the Quality of Ifo’s Production-Side Short-Term Forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:12:p:58-63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2016-12-lehmann-prognoseevaluierung-2016-06-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
    2. Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2016. "Previous Year’s Prices: Aggregation and Growth Contributions," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(11), pages 39-45, June.
    4. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2014. "Der Blick in die Glaskugel wird schärfer: EineEvaluation der Treffsicherheit der ifo DresdenKonjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(03), pages 45-46, June.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Economic Growth in Germany's Quarterly National Accounts: Previous Year's Price Basis Revisited," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(03), pages 29-36, February.
    6. Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen der Umstellung auf die neue Wirtschaftszweigklassifikation für die Regionalauswertung des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 28-31, October.
    7. Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2015. "Business Survey in Focus: Information and Communication," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(07), pages 57-60, April.
    8. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
    9. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts – a Comparison with Forecasts by Consensus Economics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 26-28, November.
    10. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    11. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "Ifo Business Survey of the Service Sector – Background, Explanations and Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    12. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    13. Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann, 2013. "Ärzte, Architekten, Autohändler – Wer treibt das Wachstum im Dienstleistungssektor?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 26-29, June.
    14. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2016. "Mehr als Kaffeesatzleserei: Eine Evaluation der ifo Prognosen zur Erwerbstätigkeit in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(02), pages 22-26, April.
    15. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Ifo capacity utilisation – a coincident indicator for business activity in German manufacturing," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
    16. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017/2018: Germany’s Economy Is Strong and Stable," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2016–2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    3. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017–2019: German Economy on Track to Boom," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Florian Eckert & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur stabilisiert sich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(24), pages 27-89, December.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "A Flash Estimate of Private Consumption in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Anna-Pauliina, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(12), pages 25-78, June.
    7. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2018. "Investment Expenditure and Leasing Continue to Grow," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(20), pages 46-50, October.
    8. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2018: Germany’s Economy Cools Down," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    3. Korbinian Breitrainer & Atanas Hristov, 2015. "Evaluation of the Eurozone Economic Outlook," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 67-73, December.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    5. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    6. Steffen Henzel & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Machbarkeit von Kurzfristprognosen für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(04), pages 21-25, August.
    7. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecast for the Services Sector in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 31-39, January.
    8. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2017. "Die ifo Konjunkturumfrage im Großhandel – Frühindikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Branche?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(11), pages 49-54, June.
    9. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816.
    10. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(07), pages 54-60, April.
    11. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecast of Gross Domestic Product at a Regional Level," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 17-23, November.
    12. Henzel Steffen R. & Wohlrabe Klaus & Lehmann Robert, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2016. "Mehr als Kaffeesatzleserei: Eine Evaluation der ifo Prognosen zur Erwerbstätigkeit in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(02), pages 22-26, April.
    14. Stefan Sauer & Michael Weber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland und Sachsen: Hintergründe und Anpassungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(03), pages 20-24, June.
    15. Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grotemeier & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "BVL Logistics Indicator – Background, Developments and Results," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(20), pages 36-42, October.
    16. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts – a Comparison with Forecasts by Consensus Economics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 26-28, November.
    17. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "Ifo Business Survey of the Service Sector – Background, Explanations and Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    18. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Johanna Garnitz & Christian Grimme & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Reif & Felix Schröter &, 2015. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2015/2017: Modest Upswing Continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 23-66, December.
    19. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Interpreting the ifo Business Climate Correctly as a Leading Economic Indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 42-46, August.
    20. Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2015. "Business Survey in Focus: Hotel and Catering Industry," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), pages 62-66, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:12:p:58-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.