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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2009: Prognose und Wirklichkeit


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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus



Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Gefolge der dramatischen Zuspitzung der Weltfinanzkrise hatte das ifo Institut in seiner Prognose zum Jahresende 2008 die Perspektiven für Deutschland im Vergleich zum Gemeinschaftsgutachten vom Oktober deutlich zurückgenommen, den konjunkturellen Einbruch aber immer noch unterschätzt. Der jahresdurchschnittliche Prognosefehler in Höhe von 2,8 Prozentpunkten geht zu einem beträchtlichen Teil auf die Unterschätzung des statistischen Unterhangs am Jahresende 2008 zurück. Der restliche Prognosefehler in Höhe von 1,7 Prozentpunkten ist durch eine Fehleinschätzung des konjunkturellen Verlaufs im Jahr 2009 verursacht. Alles in allem war die Rezession in Deutschland tiefer, als im Dezember 2008 vorhergesehen worden war.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 02 (01)
Pages: 30-33

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:02:p:30-33

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Keywords: Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Statistische Methode; Wirtschaftskonjunktur; Deutschland;

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  1. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465.
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