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The Applicability of the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands

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  • Ivo De Loo

    (Open University of the Netherlands)

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    Abstract

    The sectoral shift hypothesis in the Netherlands cannot be easily tested for the presence of rigorous structural breaks in the data. Therefore, a Kalman Filter approach is adopted. What we find, is that the variables capturing the sectoral shift hypothesis are the most important in explaining Dutch unemployment behavior during the postwar period. This means that cyclical unemployment in the Netherlands can be viewed as a fluctuation of the natural rate of unemployment.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): III (2000)
    Issue (Month): (May)
    Pages: 57-69

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    Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:3:y:2000:n:1:p:57-69

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    Keywords: unemployment; sectoral shift hypothesis;

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    1. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
    2. Mario Fortin & Abdelkrim Araar, 1997. "Sectoral shifts, stock market dispersion and unemployment in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 829-839.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
    4. Daniel S. Hamermesh & James Grant, 1979. "Econometric Studies of Labor-Labor Substitution and Their Implications for Policy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(4), pages 543-562.
    5. Mills, Terence C. & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts: Further tests of the Lilien hypothesis for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-60, July.
    6. Terence Mills & Gianluigi Pelloni & Athina Zervoyianni, 1997. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the UK: 1958-92," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 253-255.
    7. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    8. Watson, P K, 1983. "Kalman Filtering as an Alternative to Ordinary Least Squares-Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 71-85.
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