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A Replication of “The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding” (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2019)

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  • Tian Jiarui (Alex)

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand)

Abstract

This study replicates the paper “Brown, J. P., Lambert, D. M., & Wojan, T. R. (2019). The effect of the conservation reserve program on rural economies: deriving a statistical verdict from a null finding. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(2), 528–540” and their procedure for calculating the so-called ex post power of statistical tests of significance for regression coefficients. There appears no generally accepted method for calculating ex post power, and Brown, Lambert, and Wojan (BLW) provided a bootstrapping method that can be applied after the parameter of interest is estimated. They recommend researchers to use this procedure to investigate whether a statistically insignificant finding is likely to be due to a low power property of the significance test. This study makes two main contributions. First, it verifies whether the data and code that BLW provided are reliable to reproduce their results. Second, it constructs Monte Carlo experiments to assess the performance of BLW’s method. The results indicate that their method produces ex post power estimates that are relatively close to the true power values. Mean power estimates are generally unbiased, and 95% of the estimates lie within +/− 5% points of the true power. In conclusion, my replication provides further evidence of the reliability of BLW’s method.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian Jiarui (Alex), 2023. "A Replication of “The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding” (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2019)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:7:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/econ-2022-0036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    2. Jason P Brown & Dayton M Lambert & Timothy R Wojan, 2019. "The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 528-540.
    3. Sullivan, Patrick & Hellerstein, Daniel & Hansen, LeRoy T. & Johansson, Robert C. & Koenig, Steven R. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & McBride, William D. & McGranahan, David A. & Roberts, Michael J. & Vogel, S, 2004. "The Conservation Reserve Program: Economic Implications for Rural America," Agricultural Economic Reports 33987, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Hoenig J. M. & Heisey D. M., 2001. "The Abuse of Power: The Pervasive Fallacy of Power Calculations for Data Analysis," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 55, pages 19-24, February.
    5. Paige Marta Skiba & Jeremy Tobacman, 2019. "Do Payday Loans Cause Bankruptcy?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 485-519.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ex post power; statistical insignificance; Monte Carlo experiments; bootstrapping; replication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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