IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bog/econbl/y2021i54p7-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic effects of shocks to import and services sector prices

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitris Papageorgiou

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of inflationary shocks that originate from the import and services sectors. The set-up is a medium-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated for the Greek economy. The results suggest that a temporary increase in import price inflation adversely affects economic activity and drives up domestic inflation. The largest output losses occur in the medium term, since in the short term the adverse effects are dampened by the presence of price rigidities and an import substitution effect that induces expenditure to switch towards domestically produced goods. Additionally, the findings suggest that a temporary increase in the price of the services sector exerts strong inflationary pressures and negatively affects economic activity. Finally, the results show that inflation persistence matters for the effects on the macroeconomy. The more persistent inflation is in imports and the services sector, the larger the output losses

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of shocks to import and services sector prices," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 7-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2021:i:54:p:7-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/oikodelt202112.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Consolo, Agostino & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario & Smets, Frank, 2021. "The need for an inflation buffer in the ECB’s price stability objective – the role of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials," Occasional Paper Series 279, European Central Bank.
    2. Stephan Fahr & Frank Smets, 2010. "Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 812-840, December.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Wabitsch, Alena, 2022. "Central bank communication with non-experts – A road to nowhere?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 69-85.
    4. Hutchinson, John & Mee, Simon, 2020. "The impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures taken in response to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Strasser, Georg, 2019. "Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 93-112.
    6. Goodhead, Robert, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Yield Curve Compression: Evidence from Euro Area Forward Guidance and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    8. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sofia Anyfantaki & Yannis Caloghirou & Konstantinos Dellis & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Filippos Petroulakis, 2022. "Skills, management practices and technology adoption in Greek manufacturing firms," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 7-42, July.
    2. Nikolaos Vettas & Alexandros Louka & Konstantinos Peppas & Yakinthi Pountouraki & Michael Vasileiadis, 2022. "Trends in total factor productivity in Greece and its determinants during the period 2005-2019," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 56, pages 7-43, December.
    3. Nikos Ventouris & Georgios Palaiodimos, 2022. "Proposals for the reform of EU fiscal rules," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 67-81, July.
    4. Sofia Anyfantaki & Petros Migiakis & Katerina Paisiou, 2022. "Green finance in Europe: actors and challenges," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 83-105, July.
    5. Christos Catiforis, 2022. "Post-pandemic inflation: Phillips Curve, trends, drivers and lessons," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 43-65, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eleni Argiri & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2021. "The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem: an economy of forces," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 23-57, December.
    2. Ioanna Bardaka & Athina Rentifi, 2021. "The importance of selected structural competitiveness indicators for exports: a comparative analysis between the euro area and Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 59-78, December.
    3. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Holton, Sarah & Kedan, Danielle & Phelan, Gillian, 2021. "Monetary policy communication: perspectives from former policy makers at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2627, European Central Bank.
    5. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Downward Interest Rate Rigidity," Working Papers hal-04159706, HAL.
    6. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2021. "Downward interest rate rigidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
    10. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
    11. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
    13. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    14. Felbermayr Gabriel & Steininger Marina, 2019. "Revisiting the Euro’s Trade Cost and Welfare Effects," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 917-956, October.
    15. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    16. Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2022. "Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 33-57.
    17. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    18. Björn Imbierowicz & Axel Löffler & Ursula Vogel, 2021. "The transmission of bank capital requirements and monetary policy to bank lending in Germany," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 144-164, February.
    19. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    20. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    import prices; services sector prices; consumer prices; inflation; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2021:i:54:p:7-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anastasios Rizos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.