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Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability

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Author Info
Patrick Minford
David Meenagh
Bruce Webb

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Abstract

Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of UK euro entry on macroeconomic stability. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the euro's instability against the dollar; by adopting a regional currency the UK imports this source of shocks, as well as losing its control of interest rates. The results are not highly sensitive to changes in assumptions about the degree of labour market flexibility, the use of fiscal policy, and increased convergence of monetary transmission. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 27 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (03)
Pages: 301-358
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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:3:p:301-358

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  1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick, 2006. "Joining the European Monetary Union - Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vo Le & Patrick Minford, 2006. "Joining the European Monetary Union—Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Minford, Patrick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Meenagh, David, 2007. "Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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