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Choosing the Regime: Macroeconomic Effects of UK Entry into EMU

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  • Ray Barrell
  • Karen Dury

Abstract

The UK's decision on EMU membership depends in part on its effects on the economy. The UK targets inflation, and this involves some ‘price level drift’, whilst the ECB emphasizes price stability and would plan to reverse the drift in the price level caused by external shocks such as an increase in the oil price. We discuss the foundations of the ECB policy in German Ordoliberalism. The regimes are then compared over the future using a large macro model (NiGEM) which includes descriptions of all the European economies. It is repeatedly subject to historically representative shocks. The effects of these shocks are compared with the UK in and out of EMU.

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  • Ray Barrell & Karen Dury, 2000. "Choosing the Regime: Macroeconomic Effects of UK Entry into EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 625-644, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:38:y:2000:i:4:p:625-644
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5965.00257
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Minford & David Meenagh & Bruce Webb, 2004. "Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 301-358, March.
    2. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "Political Devolution without Fiscal Devolution," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0505, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    3. Patrick Minford, 2004. "Britain, the Euro, and the Five Tests," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 75-87, Spring/Su.
    4. Barrell, Ray & Byrne, Joseph P. & Dury, Karen, 2003. "The implications of diversity in consumption behaviour for the choice of monetary policy rules in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 275-299, March.
    5. Patrick Minford, 2008. "Why the United Kingdom Should Not Join the Eurozone," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 283-295, December.

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