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Spatial contagion during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic: Some lessons from the case of Madrid, Spain

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  • María Hierro
  • Adolfo Maza

Abstract

This paper analyses the magnitude of the spatial transmission of COVID‐19 through the municipalities of the region of Madrid during the first pandemic wave using a spatial contagion index. The study also provides additional insights into the main factors contributing to the spread of the virus in both time and space by estimating a novel conditional spatial contagion index. Our results reveal high values of spatial contagion before and during the national lockdown enacted on 15 March 2020, becoming medium/low since then. Furthermore, the study confirms the leading role of inter‐municipal mobility and population density in spatial contagion. Este artículo analiza la magnitud de la transmisión espacial de COVID‐19 a través de los municipios de la región de Madrid durante la primera ola pandémica, para lo cual utiliza un índice de contagio espacial. El estudio también proporciona información adicional sobre los principales factores que contribuyen a la propagación del virus, tanto en el tiempo como en el espacio, mediante la estimación de un novedoso índice de contagio espacial condicional. Los resultados revelan altos valores de contagio espacial antes y durante el confinamiento nacional promulgado el 15 de marzo de 2020, pasando a ser medios o bajos desde entonces. Además, el estudio confirma el protagonismo de la movilidad intermunicipal y la densidad de población en el contagio espacial. 本稿では、空間的感染指標を用いて、パンデミックの第一波におけるマドリッド地域の自治体におけるCOVID‐19の空間的伝播の規模を解析する。また、新しい条件付き空間感染指標を推定することにより、時間と空間の両方でウイルスの拡散に寄与する主要因子の解明の手掛かりを提供する。結果から、2020年3月15日に施行された全国的なロックダウン前とロックダウン中の空間的感染のレベルが高く、それ以降は中程度~低程度になっていることが明らかになった。本研究からさらに、都市間の移動性と人口密度が空間的感染の主導的役割となっていることを確認された。

Suggested Citation

  • María Hierro & Adolfo Maza, 2023. "Spatial contagion during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic: Some lessons from the case of Madrid, Spain," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 474-492, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:474-492
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zahra Dehghan Shabani & Rouhollah Shahnazi, 2020. "Spatial distribution dynamics and prediction of COVID‐19 in Asian countries: spatial Markov chain approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1005-1025, December.
    2. Sandy Dall'Erba & Marco Percoco & Gianfranco Piras, 2008. "The European Regional Growth Process Revisited," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 7-25.
    3. María Hierro & Adolfo Maza & José Villaverde, 2013. "A proposal for detecting spatial contagion: Some evidence on the international migration distribution in Spain," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(4), pages 811-829, November.
    4. Pedro S Peixoto & Diego Marcondes & Cláudia Peixoto & Sérgio M Oliva, 2020. "Modeling future spread of infections via mobile geolocation data and population dynamics. An application to COVID-19 in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, July.
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