IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v81y2019i2p250-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Zeina N. Alsalman
  • Mohamad B. Karaki

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of structural oil shocks on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). First, we estimate a nonlinear simultaneous equation model, compute impulse responses by Monte Carlo integration, and conduct a test of the symmetry of the impulse response functions. We find that aggregate PCE responds asymmetrically to positive and negative oil‐specific demand shocks. Second, we find that aggregate PCE responds negatively to positive oil demand shocks, while adverse oil supply shocks are of limited effect. Third, we find important heterogeneity in the magnitude, sign and timing of the disaggregate PCE responses to structural shocks in the crude oil market. Our results clearly indicate that the response of PCE to an unexpected oil price increase depends on the source of the oil price shock. Our findings are robust to different nonlinear transformations for the real price of oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeina N. Alsalman & Mohamad B. Karaki, 2019. "Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(2), pages 250-270, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:81:y:2019:i:2:p:250-270
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12276
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/obes.12276?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tarek Ghazouani, 2020. "Energy Price Shocks and Financial Market Integration: Evidence from New Keynesian Model," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 13-32, February.
    2. Goktug Sahin & Nukhet Dogan & M. Hakan Berument, 2023. "The effects of two benchmarks on Russian crude oil prices," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 733-748, April.
    3. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    5. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Zhang, Chuanguo & Shang, Hongli, 2023. "Asymmetry effect of oil price shocks and the lagging effect of oil price jumps: Evidence from China's automobile markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Guy Assaker & Wassim Shahin, 2022. "What Drives Faculty Publication Citations in the Business Field? Empirical Results from an AACSB Middle Eastern Institution," Publications, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, November.
    9. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Keli & Gong, Xu, 2021. "The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Long, Shaobo & Zhang, Rui, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of international oil prices, oil price uncertainty and income on urban residents’ consumption in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 789-805.
    12. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Naifar, Nader & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2023. "Multilayer information spillover networks between oil shocks and banking sectors: Evidence from oil-rich countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan, 2021. "Are the responses of output and investment to oil price shocks asymmetric?: The case of an oil-importing small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2501-2516, November.
    14. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:81:y:2019:i:2:p:250-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.