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The New Keynesian Model and the Euro Area Business Cycle

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  • Miguel Casares

Abstract

This paper describes a New Keynesian model incorporating transactions-facilitating money and a time-to-build constraint into endogenous capital accumulation. The calibrated New Keynesian model performs almost as well as the estimated vector autoregressive model in replicating Euro area cyclical correlations between key variables such as output and inflation, although it fares less well in predicting the procyclical dynamics of nominal interest rates. The presence of a time-to-build requirement in the model helps to improve its fit to Euro area data, whereas the role of transactions-facilitating money is much less important. Impulse-response functions and a decomposition of variance complete the analysis. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 209-244

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:2:p:209-244

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References

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  1. Miguel Casares, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Euro Area Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 875-900, 06.
  2. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Fiorella De Fiore & Pedro Teles, 2002. "The optimal mix of taxes on money, consumption and income," Working Paper Series WP-02-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996. "Inflation targeting in a St. Louis model of the 21st century," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-107.
  5. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0542, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Lai, Ching-chong & Chen, Shu-hua & Shaw, Ming-fu, 2005. "Nominal income targeting versus money growth targeting in an endogenously growing economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 359-366, March.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
  9. Casares, Miguel, 2006. "Time-to-build, monetary shocks, and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1161-1176, September.
  10. Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October.
  11. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, 03.
  12. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs of inflation and policy credibility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-50.
  13. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  14. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Chadha, Jagjit S & Haldane, Andrew G & Janssen, Norbert G J, 1998. "Shoe-Leather Costs Reconsidered," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 363-82, March.
  16. Casares, Miguel & McCallum, Bennett T., 2006. "An optimizing IS-LM framework with endogenous investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 621-644, December.
  17. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
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Cited by:
  1. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2012. "The Great Moderation of Inflation: a structural analysis of recent U.S. monetary business cycles," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1215, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.

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