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Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets

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  • Shields, Kalvinder K

Abstract

A common finding for developed stock markets is that negative shocks entering the market lead to a larger return volatility than positive shocks of a similar magnitude. The following paper considers two emerging Eastern European markets where the first point of investigation is whether an analogous asymmetric characteristic is reflected in emerging markets. The second point of investigation is whether the findings differ depending on the institutional microstructure of the exchange being examined. Hence, econometric techniques are adjusted and a 'double-censored tobit GARCH' model is developed. This paper finds that no asymmetry exists on either emerging market but does exist for a stock return series on the developed market; possible reasons for this are proposed. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 118-138, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:65:y:1997:i:0:p:118-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Majerowska, Ewa, 2000. "Regulation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: The portfolio allocation problem," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 555-576, April.
    2. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1999. "The Tail Behavior of Sotck Returns: Emerging Versus Mature Markets," Working papers 66, Banque de France.
    3. Erginbay UGURLU, 2014. "Forecasting Volatility: Evidence from the Bucharest Stock Exchange," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 1(1), pages 302-310, December.
    4. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    5. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    6. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kalvinder Shields, 1997. "Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 107-125, May.
    8. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Volatility Behaviour of the Foreign Exchange Rate and Transmission Among Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from the EGARCH Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 36-56, February.
    9. Ewa Majerowska, "undated". "Validity of the optimal portfolio allocation model with price constraints on the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/5, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

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