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Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies

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  • NICHOLAS BARBERIS
  • LAWRENCE J. JIN
  • BAOLIAN WANG

Abstract

We present a new model of asset prices in which investors evaluate risk according to prospect theory and examine its ability to explain 23 prominent stock market anomalies. The model incorporates all of the elements of prospect theory, accounts for investors' prior gains and losses, and makes quantitative predictions about an asset's average return based on empirical estimates of the asset's return volatility, return skewness, and past capital gain. We find that the model can help explain a majority of the 23 anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:5:p:2639-2687
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13061
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    6. Gupta, Nilesh & Mishra, Anil V & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Prospect theory preferences and global mutual fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
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    8. Luca De Gennaro Aquino & Xuedong He & Moris Simon Strub & Yuting Yang, 2024. "Reference-dependent asset pricing with a stochastic consumption-dividend ratio," Papers 2401.12856, arXiv.org.
    9. Zeng, Rong (Ratchel) & Oh, Won-Yong & Zhu, Pengcheng, 2023. "Will investors’ excitement last? Determinants of investors’ responses to cross-border acquisitions by Chinese firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Fakhrul Hasan & Umar Nawaz Kayani & Tonmoy Choudhury, 2023. "Behavioral Risk Preferences and Dividend Changes: Exploring the Linkages with Prospect Theory Through Empirical Analysis," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(4), pages 517-535, December.
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    12. Felix Reichenbach & Martin Walther, 2023. "Financial recommendations on Reddit, stock returns and cumulative prospect theory," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 421-448, June.

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