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Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

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  • STEFAN NAGEL
  • KENNETH J. SINGLETON

Abstract

We find that several recently proposed consumption-based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model-implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal GMM estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors. Further, for the (often relevant) case where a researcher is proposing a generalized SDF relative to some null model, we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing the null against the proposed alternative.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 66 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 873-909

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:66:y:2011:i:3:p:873-909

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Cited by:
  1. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
  2. Nikolai Roussanov, 2010. "Composition of Wealth, Conditioning Information, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 16073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Manuel Arellano & Lars Peter Hansen & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Underidentification?," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. Nagel, Stefan, 2012. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Klein, Rudolf F. & Chow, Victor K., 2013. "Orthogonalized factors and systematic risk decomposition," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 175-187.
  6. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Estimation of Jump Tails," CREATES Research Papers 2010-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2013. "Chi-squared tests for evaluation and comparison of asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 108-125.
  8. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
  9. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ronchetti, Diego, 2013. "Semi-parametric estimation of American option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 57-82.
  10. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.
  11. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  12. Aono, Kohei & Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2013. "The consumption–wealth ratio, real estate wealth, and the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 39-51.

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