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Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence

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  • Maria Michou

Abstract

This paper explores the predictive ability of the value spread in the UK. I replicate the US analysis of Liu and Zhang (2007) using UK data. In addition, I extend their work by exploring the predictive ability of the book‐to‐market, market‐to‐book and value spread on other size and value investment strategies, namely: large‐caps only; small‐caps minus large‐caps (SML); value stocks only; growth stocks only; value stocks minus growth stocks (VMG) and a market portfolio that includes all stocks. The results are consistent with Liu and Zhang (2007) on the value spread. The value spread shows no predictive power for portfolio returns. Therefore, I show that the predictive power of book‐to‐market and market‐to‐book spreads depend on the portfolio formation strategies and the relative proportion of small‐cap, large‐cap, value and growth stocks in the portfolio.

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  • Maria Michou, 2009. "Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 925-950, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:36:y:2009:i:7-8:p:925-950
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02148.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Daniel Chi‐Hsiou Hung & Mark Shackleton & Xinzhong Xu, 2004. "CAPM, Higher Co‐moment and Factor Models of UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1‐2), pages 87-112, January.
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    4. Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2001. "An Analysis of Contrarian Investment Strategies in the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9‐10), pages 1192-1228, November.
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    7. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Keith Anderson & Tomasz Zastawniak, 2017. "Glamour, value and anchoring on the changing /," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 375-406, April.
    3. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    4. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    5. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1252-1272.
    6. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1252-1272, November.

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