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Use of Forecasts of Earnings to Estimate and Compare Cost of Capital Across Regimes

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  • Peter Easton

Abstract

I critically examine several of the methods used in the recent literature to estimate and compare the cost of capital across different accounting/regulatory regimes. I focus on the central importance of expectations of growth beyond the short period for which forecasts of future pay‐offs (dividends and/or earnings) are available. I illustrate, using the stocks that comprised the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at December 31, 2004, as an example, the differences between the growth rates implied by the data, and growth rates that are often assumed in the literature. My analyses show that assumptions about growth beyond the (short) forecast horizon may seriously affect the estimates of the expected rate of return and may lead to spurious inferences.

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  • Peter Easton, 2006. "Use of Forecasts of Earnings to Estimate and Compare Cost of Capital Across Regimes," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3‐4), pages 374-394, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006:i:3-4:p:374-394
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.00627.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John O'Hanlon & Anthony Steele, 2000. "Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9‐10), pages 1051-1083, November.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    3. Holger Daske, 2006. "Economic Benefits of Adopting IFRS or US-GAAP - Have the Expected Cost of Equity Capital Really Decreased?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3-4), pages 329-373.
    4. Holger Daske, 2006. "Economic Benefits of Adopting IFRS or US‐GAAP – Have the Expected Cost of Equity Capital Really Decreased?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3‐4), pages 329-373, April.
    5. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    6. Dan Dhaliwal & Linda Krull & Oliver Zhen Li & William Moser, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 675-708, December.
    7. Bhattacharya, Nilabhra & Black, Ervin L. & Christensen, Theodore E. & Larson, Chad R., 2003. "Assessing the relative informativeness and permanence of pro forma earnings and GAAP operating earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 285-319, December.
    8. John O'Hanlon & Anthony Steele, 2000. "Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9&10), pages 1051-1083.
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