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Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Aharony, Joseph
  • Dotan, Amihud

Abstract

Previous studies have interpreted stock price reaction to dividend announcements as being consistent with the hypothesis that any changes are forecasts of future corporate profits. Recent studies seem to provide evidence to this effect. This study provides additional empirical evidence pertaining to the issue of whether quarterly cash dividend announcements convey useful information about a firm's future profitability, beyond that contained in contemporaneous quarterly earnings announcements. The association between unexpected changes in quarterly dividends and unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent quarters is examined, after controlling for information contained in past and current earnings series. The results, based on a large sample of regular quarterly cash dividend changes, indicate that firms that increased (decreased) their dividends realized, on average, greater (smaller) unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent periods than firms that did not change their dividends. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Aharony, Joseph & Dotan, Amihud, 1994. "Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 125-151, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:29:y:1994:i:1:p:125-51
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    Cited by:

    1. Ksenija Denčić-Mihajlov & Dejan Spasić, 2016. "Mandatory and Voluntary Disclosures of Serbian Listed Companies - Achieved Level and Some Recommendation for Improving their Relevance," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(1), pages 27-38, April.
    2. Wei Hao & Udomsak Wongchoti & Martin Young & Jianguo Chen, 2021. "R2 and the corporate signaling effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1353-1381, December.
    3. Muhammad Akbar & Humayun Habib Baig, 2010. "Reaction of Stock Prices to Dividend Announcements and Market Efficiency in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 103-125, Jan-Jun.
    4. Ai-Chi Hsu & Szu-Hsien Lin, 2010. "Trading Strategies Based On Dividend Yield: Evidence From The Taiwan Stock Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 71-84.
    5. Salman Riaz & Yanping Liu & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, 2016. "Dividend Policy and Corporate Governance Perspective," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 1-77, August.
    6. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    7. Paul McGuinness & Kevin Lam & João Vieito, 2015. "Gender and other major board characteristics in China: Explaining corporate dividend policy and governance," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 989-1038, December.
    8. Dempsey, Stephen J. & Sheng, Hainan, 2023. "Dividend change announcements, ROE, and the cost of equity capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Fukuda, Atsuo, 2000. "Dividend changes and earnings performance in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-66, March.
    10. Ahmed Arif & Mehwish Aziz Khan & Ferheen Kayani & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2011. "Dividend Policy and Earnings Management: An Empirical Study of Pakistani Listed Companies," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 3(2), pages 68-77.
    11. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L. & Halford, Joseph T., 2021. "Fictitious dividend cuts in the CRSP data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Ben Howatt & Richard Zuber & John Gandar & Reinhold Lamb, 2009. "Dividends, earnings volatility and information," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 551-562.
    13. Harada, Kimie & Nguyen, Pascal, 2005. "Dividend change context and signaling efficiency in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 504-522, November.
    14. Qiang Li & Hua Sun & Seow Ong, 2006. "REIT Splits and Dividend Changes: Tests of Signaling and Information Substitutability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 127-150, September.
    15. Tzu-Chun Sheng & Alvin Chang & Shu-Hui Lan & Shih-Cheng Li, 2020. "Analysis of the Dividend Policy Decision-Making Mechanism of Chinese and Taiwanese Lithium Battery Industries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Baker, H. Kent & Powell, Gary E. & Veit, E. Theodore, 2002. "Revisiting the dividend puzzle: Do all of the pieces now fit?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 241-261.
    17. Henry, Darren & Nguyen, Lily & Pham, Viet Hung, 2017. "Institutional trading before dividend reduction announcements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 40-55.
    18. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Steven Utke, 2023. "Attention to dividends, inattention to earnings?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 265-306, March.
    19. Michael Dempsey & Abeyratna Gunasekarage & Thanh Tan Truong, 2019. "The association between dividend payout and firm growth: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(4), pages 2345-2376, December.
    20. Sadaf Anwar & Shveta Singh & P. K. Jain, 2017. "Impact of Cash Dividend Announcements: Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Companies," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 29-60, April.
    21. Fairchild, Richard & Guney, Yilmaz & Thanatawee, Yordying, 2014. "Corporate dividend policy in Thailand: Theory and evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 129-151.
    22. H.Kent Baker & Gary E. Powell & E.Theodore Veit, 2002. "Revisiting the dividend puzzle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 241-261.
    23. Chin-Sheng Huang & Chun-Fan You & Hsiao-Fen Hsiao, 2017. "Dividends and Subsequent Profitability: An Examination of a Dual Dividend Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-35, March.
    24. Khaled Hussainey & Jinan Aal-Eisa, 2009. "Disclosure and dividend signalling when sustained earnings growth declines," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(5), pages 445-454, May.

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