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International Trade, Real GDP, the Terms of Trade, and the Australian Economy 2011 to 2017

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  • Alan Ross Hall

Abstract

Since their inception around 1960 the international System of National Accounts (SNA) constant price accounts (chained volumes) have mismeasured real GDP. The domestic production effects of changes in the terms of trade have been excluded and international trade values misreported. Most of the time the SNA mismeasurements have little real effect. But when there are large changes in the terms of trade they become statistically significant. Real GDP estimates may transform into mere counterfactuals. This is particularly so when the terms of trade are declining. After September 2011, did the mismeasurement of international trade hamper the economic management of the Australian economy?

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Ross Hall, 2018. "International Trade, Real GDP, the Terms of Trade, and the Australian Economy 2011 to 2017," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(3), pages 220-229, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:37:y:2018:i:3:p:220-229
    DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Dean Parham, 2013. "Australia's Productivity: Past, Present and Future," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages 462-472, December.
    7. James Bishop & Christopher Kent & Michael Plumb & Vanessa Rayner, 2013. "The Resources Boom and the Australian Economy: A Sectoral Analysis," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-50, March.
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