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Manejo de sacudidas petroleras negativas: la experiencia venezolana en los años 80

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  • Ricardo Hausmann

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La experiencia venezolana en los años 80 es un terreno especialmente fértil para el análisis de sacudidas negativas. Se produjeron dos sacudidas de gran magnitud en regímenes de control muy distintos, lo que puso de manifiesto el papel que desempeña la estructura institucional en la determinación de la respuesta. Además, la experiencia puede arrojar una luz distinta sobre la conveniencia de regímenes cambiarios alternativos de países sujetos a sacudidas comerciales de gran magnitud y frecuentes. Además, el análisis se puede simplificar por dos motivos. En primer lugar, las sacudidas petroleras tienen efectos directos en el sector público únicamente, lo que implica que lo que afecta a los hogares y las empresas es la reacción de políticas a las sacudidas. En segundo lugar, la respuesta de la oferta de la industria petrolera no es de interés macroeconómico.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4011.

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Date of creation: Aug 1995
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4011

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital controls, the dual exchange rate, and devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, February.
  2. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  4. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
  5. Daekuen Park & Jeffrey Sachs, 1987. "Capital Controls and the Timing of Exchange Regime Collapse," NBER Working Papers 2250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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