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Pure Indicator Of Risk Appetite

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  • PHILIPPE DUPUY

Abstract

We study the concept of risk appetite, that is investors’ willingness to buy risky assets. Market players and researchers have tried to find a proxy for it, notably by means of spreads in high yielding markets like credit or emerging markets. However, these measures might be biased because they hinge on series of prices that include market movements due to the re‐pricing of both systemic and specific risks. Being macro factors that affect all the assets in the universe, risk appetite and risk aversion can only produce systemic risk re‐pricing. We apply a methodology to correct this bias. We analysed emerging market debt capital markets and compute a systemic risk only indicator that enables one to ascertain more precisely periods in which risk appetite might have driven market returns. We find that from the end of 1997 to 2004 only about 30 per cent of the return of the EMBI+ might have been due to changes in risk appetite.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Dupuy, 2009. "Pure Indicator Of Risk Appetite," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 18-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:48:y:2009:i:1:p:18-33
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2009.00361.x
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    1. Prasanna Gai & Nicholas Vause, 2006. "Measuring Investors' Risk Appetite," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Dimitrios Karampatos, 2003. "Investors' attitude towards risk: what can we learn from options?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    5. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    6. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Avinash Persaud, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2001/134, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Gökçe Soydemir & Jan Smolarski & Sangheon Shin, 2014. "Hedge funds, fund attributes and risk adjusted returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 133-149, January.
    2. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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