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What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches

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Romain Duval

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Abstract

Despite the fact that the presence of non tradable goods is one of the most frequently advanced reasons for the failure of PPP, the empirical analysis conducted in this paper shows that it explains only a very small portion of the long run behaviour of real exchange rates (RERs) in developed countries: in most cases, there appears to be a very strong long run relationship between RERs calculated on price indexes for tradables and non tradables. As a consequence, deviations from PPP usually appear to be as large for both kinds of goods. To a certain extent, this stylised fact is also verified in the case of the yen/dollar RER, yet formerly known as a typical illustration of the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect. In this context, so-called macroeconomic approaches of ERERs may be viewed as an alternative to all versions of PPP. We develop a model which combines the contributions of the most fruitful dynamic approaches, namely the NATREX and the BEER. An estimate of this model shows that the main long run determinants of the dollar/euro RER are the rate of consumption and the level of technical progress of the euro area relative to the US. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia 2002.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Australian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 41 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 382-403
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:41:y:2002:i:4:p:382-403

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  1. Jerome Stein, 2004. "Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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