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Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview

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  • Jerome L. Stein

Abstract

The focus is upon equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt and their interaction, in a world where both the return on investment and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. These theoretically based measures are applied empirically to answer the following questions: What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess debt" that increases the probability of a debt crisis? What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a currency/balance of payments crises? Two theoretical tools are used to derive Early Warning Signals. One is the NATREX model to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate. The second is stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive the optimal debt and endogenous growth rate. Examples are given of these applications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1363.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1363

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Keywords: stochastic optimal control; foreign debt; NATREX; vulnerability to external shocks; sustainable current account; warning signals of debt crisis; exchange rate misalignments;

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  1. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
  3. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
  4. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  5. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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Cited by:
  1. Serge REY, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers 5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.

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