IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v62y2022i2p2089-2129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Brain gain of analysts in China: foreign experiences and forecast accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Lihua Liu
  • Dongmin Kong
  • Wei Yang

Abstract

Using unique data on analysts’ foreign experiences, we investigate how analysts’ foreign experiences affect forecast performance in China. Based on analysts’ education and work background overseas, we find that foreign experiences significantly increase analysts’ forecast accuracy. Our results are robust to different measures and alternative specifications. Mechanism tests show that the improvement of forecast accuracy can be attributed to an analyst’s foreign work background, education with high level degrees, and prior overseas analyst working experience. Further evidence suggests the influence of foreign work experiences on analysts’ forecast accuracy are more pronounced for firms with lower earnings quality and higher ownership concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Lihua Liu & Dongmin Kong & Wei Yang, 2022. "Brain gain of analysts in China: foreign experiences and forecast accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2089-2129, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:62:y:2022:i:2:p:2089-2129
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12855
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12855
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12855?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yunhao Dai & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Returnee Talent and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 313-337, March.
    2. Eugene Soltes, 2014. "Private Interaction Between Firm Management and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 245-272, March.
    3. Conyon, Martin J. & Haß, Lars Helge & Vergauwe, Skrålan & Zhang, Zhifang, 2019. "Foreign experience and CEO compensation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 102-121.
    4. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
    5. Yuan, Rongli & Wen, Wen, 2018. "Managerial foreign experience and corporate innovation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 752-770.
    6. Dong, Rui & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang & Xu, Nianhang, 2021. "Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 971-984.
    7. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2000. "Investor protection and corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-27.
    8. Danling Jiang & Alok Kumar & Kelvin K. F. Law, 2016. "Political contributions and analyst behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 37-88, March.
    9. Hongping Tan & Shiheng Wang & Michael Welker, 2011. "Analyst Following and Forecast Accuracy After Mandated IFRS Adoptions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1307-1357, December.
    10. Gul, Ferdinand A. & Kim, Jeong-Bon & Qiu, Annie A., 2010. "Ownership concentration, foreign shareholding, audit quality, and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 425-442, March.
    11. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    12. Xiaolin Chen & Yunhao Dai & Dongmin Kong & Weiqiang Tan, 2017. "Effect of international working experience of individual auditors on audit quality: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7-8), pages 1073-1108, July.
    13. Sami Keskek & Linda A. Myers & Thomas C. Omer & Marjorie K. Shelley, 2017. "The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 780-811, May.
    14. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    15. Harrison Hong & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2010. "Competition and Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1683-1725.
    16. Du, Qianqian & Yu, Frank & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2017. "Cultural Proximity and the Processing of Financial Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2703-2726, December.
    17. Marco Maria Mattei & Petya Platikanova, 2017. "Do product market threats affect analyst forecast precision?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1628-1665, December.
    18. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    19. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    20. Pacelli, Joseph, 2019. "Corporate culture and analyst catering⁎," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 120-143.
    21. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    22. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    23. Platikanova, Petya & Mattei, Marco Maria, 2016. "Firm geographic dispersion and financial analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-89.
    24. Li Liu & Gary Gang Tian, 2021. "Mandatory CSR disclosure, monitoring and investment efficiency: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 595-644, March.
    25. Matthias Demmer & Paul Pronobis & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2019. "Mandatory IFRS adoption and analyst forecast accuracy: the role of financial statement-based forecasts and analyst characteristics," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1022-1065, September.
    26. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    27. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    28. Michael Firth & Chen Lin & Ping Liu & Yuhai Xuan, 2013. "The Client Is King: Do Mutual Fund Relationships Bias Analyst Recommendations?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 165-200, March.
    29. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Hamada, Koichi, 1974. "The brain drain, international integration of markets for professionals and unemployment : A theoretical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-42, April.
    30. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G., 2006. "The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts' forecasts and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 53-85, October.
    31. Volkan Muslu & Sunay Mutlu & Suresh Radhakrishnan & Albert Tsang, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility Report Narratives and Analyst Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 1119-1142, February.
    32. Jian Zhang & Dongmin Kong & Ji Wu, 2018. "Doing Good Business by Hiring Directors with Foreign Experience," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 859-876, December.
    33. Mariassunta Giannetti & Guanmin Liao & Xiaoyun Yu, 2015. "The Brain Gain of Corporate Boards: Evidence from China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1629-1682, August.
    34. Catherine M. Daily & S. Trevis Certo & Dan R. Dalton, 2000. "International experience in the executive suite: the path to prosperity?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 515-523, April.
    35. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    36. Feng Cao & Jian Sun & Rongli Yuan, 2019. "Board directors with foreign experience and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9-10), pages 1144-1170, October.
    37. Lily Hua Fang & Sterling Huang, 2017. "Gender and Connections among Wall Street Analysts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3305-3335.
    38. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2017. "Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 751-792, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xingyu & Kok Loang, Ooi, 2023. "Analysts’ forecast optimism and cash holding: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dai, Yunhao & Chao, Yang & Wang, Li, 2021. "The brain gain of CFOs in China: The case of analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi, 2021. "Do visiting monks give better sermons? An analysis of the foreign experience of Chinese fund managers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. T. Bourveau & A. Garel & P. Peter Joos & A. Petit-Romec, 2024. "When attention is away, analysts misplay: distraction and analyst forecast performance," Post-Print hal-03844012, HAL.
    5. Xueman Xiang & Carl R. Chen & Yue Liu & Azhar Mughal & Qizhi Tao, 2024. "Are directors with foreign experience better monitors? Evidence from investment efficiency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 799-840, February.
    6. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Dai, Ming & (Troy) Yao, Daifei, 2022. "Does international experience of managers bring financing benefits? Evidence from the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1).
    7. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wei, Zuobao & Zhu, Yicheng, 2023. "Does public corruption affect analyst forecast quality?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Zuobao Wei & Yicheng Zhu, 2023. "Does religiosity improve analyst forecast accuracy?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 915-948, April.
    9. Wunhong Su & Xingxing Hu & Liuzhen Zhang, 2023. "Association Between Directors With Foreign Experience and Firms’ Environmental Disclosure," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    10. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    11. Fee, C Edward & Li, Zhi & Peng, Qiyuan, 2023. "Hidden Gems: Do market participants respond to performance expectations revealed in compensation disclosures?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    12. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Liu, Shasha, 2022. "Does the mandatory disclosure of audit information affect analysts' information acquisition?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Hou, Qingsong & Li, Weifang & Teng, Min & Hu, May, 2022. "Just a short-lived glory?The effect of China's anti-corruption on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Vesa Pursiainen, 2022. "Cultural Biases in Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 163-211, February.
    15. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2020. "Ties That Bind: The Value of Professional Connections to Sell-Side Analysts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 4118-4151, September.
    16. Zachary Kaplan & Xiumin Martin & Yifang Xie, 2021. "Truncating Optimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(5), pages 1827-1884, December.
    17. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Jialong Wang & Ran Cui, 2023. "Does CEO's foreign experience promote export performance? Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 326-345, September.
    19. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    20. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:62:y:2022:i:2:p:2089-2129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.