IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bjc/journl/v8y2021i2p98-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Development Budget Deficit on Gross County Product of Counties in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Habil O. Onyango

    (Department of Economics, Maseno University, Private Bag, Maseno, Kenya)

  • Scholastica A. Odhiambo

    (Department of Economics, Maseno University, Private Bag, Maseno, Kenya)

  • Evans O. Kiganda

    (Department of Economics, Kaimosi Friends University, Kaimosi, Kenya)

Abstract

Globally, the performance of any economy is guided by the proportion of productive resources dedicated towards supporting its needs. Whenever their availability is low and cannot support adequately the economic needs, contribute to economic instability and this an issue of concern for many countries. Kenya established county governments in 2013 and since then, worrying trends in growth of development budget deficit (DBD) and Gross County Product (GCP) have been registered. Between 2013 and 2017 the average development budget deficit increased from 1036.19 million shillings to 1467.94 million shillings, while the average Gross County Product increased from 90.721 billion shillings to 163.259 billion shillings. However, some county governments have not realized the increase in their GCP as much, which becomes a worrying trend. Literature has given great focus on the aggregate budget deficit, while majorly considering data at the national level. The available studies also show no consensus whether these deficits have negative, positive or neutral effect on growth of an economy. The purpose of this study was to establish the impact of development budget deficit on Gross County Product of counties in Kenya. The study used panel data from 2013 to 2017 for all the 47 counties in Kenya, sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and Controller of Budget reports. A correlational research design was used, with the study modelled on Solow Swan’s neoclassical economic growth theory. The panel estimation method of Random Effects as preferred by the Hausman test was used to estimate and interpret results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that development budget deficit had a coefficient of 0.21 with p-value of 0.056 while the coefficient of its lagged value was 0.06 with a p-value of 0.001. This implied that development budget deficit of the past had a positive impact on Gross County Product. Based on these findings, the study concluded that past increase in development budget deficit increases growth of Gross County. Based on these findings, the study recommended for spending this deficit on projects that help create capital stock, caution when spending these deficits in a way that can spur growth even in the current year, and finally for policies that helps in higher absorption rate of development budget allocations.

Suggested Citation

  • Habil O. Onyango & Scholastica A. Odhiambo & Evans O. Kiganda, 2021. "Impact of Development Budget Deficit on Gross County Product of Counties in Kenya," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 8(2), pages 98-104, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjc:journl:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:98-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/digital-library/volume-8-issue-2/98-104.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/virtual-library/papers/impact-of-development-budget-deficit-on-gross-county-product-of-counties-in-kenya/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    3. Ebenezer A. OLUBIYI & Michael A. BOLARINWA, 2018. "Fiscal deficit and inflation rate in selected African Regional Blocs: A comparative analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 89-101, March.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    5. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    6. Ramu M R, Anantha & Gayithri, K, 2016. "Fiscal deficit composition and economic growth relation in India: A time series econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 76304, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2016.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf & Paul A. Johnson & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2009. "The Methods of Growth Econometrics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 24, pages 1119-1179, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Ramu, M R Anantha & Gayithri, K., 2016. "Relationship between fiscal deficit composition and economic growth in India: A time series econometric analysis," Working Papers 367, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    9. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    10. Serdar Kurt & Canan Gunes & Verda Davasligil, 2012. "The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phan Thanh Chung & Sizhong Sun & Diem Thi Hong Vo, 2019. "How Does Financial Development Interact With Economic Growth In Five Asean Countries?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 441-460, June.
    2. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates & Giammario Impullitti, 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lisa Cook, 2014. "Violence and economic activity: evidence from African American patents, 1870–1940," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 221-257, June.
    7. Chukwuebuka Bernard Azolibe, 2021. "Determinants of External Indebtedness in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries: What Macroeconomic and Socio-Economic Factors Matter?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 249-264, October.
    8. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    9. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Md. Mizanur Rahman & Tahsin Binta Anis, 2023. "Government expenditure on education and economic growth: a panel data analysis," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 2, pages 30-46.
    11. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for the Middle East and North African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2058-2072.
    12. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Soriano, Franklin A. & Villano, Renato A. & Fleming, Euan M. & Battese, George E., 2018. "What’s driving innovation in small businesses in Australia? The case of the food industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(1), October.
    14. Boeing, Philipp & Eberle, Jonathan & Howell, Anthony, 2022. "The impact of China's R&D subsidies on R&D investment, technological upgrading and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    16. Sulekha Hembram & Souparna Maji & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Club Convergence among the Major Indian States During 1982–2014: Does Investment in Human Capital Matter?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(2), pages 184-204, September.
    17. Yilmaz Bayar, 2016. "Institutional Determinants of Stock Market Development in European Union Transition Economies," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 211-226, September.
    18. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Aktamov Asomiddin, 2022. "Energy-Use Inefficiency and Policy Governance in Central Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    19. Tobias Schlegel & Curdin Pfister & Dietmar Harhoff & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2022. "Innovation effects of universities of applied sciences: an assessment of regional heterogeneity," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-118, February.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bjc:journl:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:98-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Renu Malsaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.