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Heterogeneidad en el impacto económico del Covid-19 entre regiones y países del área del euro

Author

Listed:
  • Elvira Prades Illanes
  • Patrocinio Tello Casas

Abstract

La expansión del Covid-19 a nivel global y, sobre todo, las medidas de distanciamiento social adoptadas para contener la crisis sanitaria han conducido a la mayoría de las economías a una paralización significativa de la actividad económica. El impacto de estas medidas sobre la economía de los distintos países o regiones es potencialmente muy distinto en función de su estructura productiva, aspecto que se ve también influenciado por las relaciones cliente-proveedor intersectoriales en la cadena de suministro tanto nacional como internacional. En este artículo se investiga cómo la perturbación provocada por el Covid-19 puede tener un impacto heterogéneo en función de estas dos dimensiones: diferencias en la estructura productiva y en las conexiones intersectoriales. En primer lugar, se cuantifica el impacto de distintos escenarios considerados para España sobre el valor añadido de las distintas Comunidades Autónomas (CCAA). En segundo lugar, se usan estos mismos escenarios para estimar su impacto en los países de mayor tamaño de la zona del euro (Alemania, Francia, Italia y España). Los resultados confirman que las restricciones sobre la actividad económica adoptadas en España para contener la pandemia tienen efectos heterogéneos por CCAA en función de las diferentes estructuras productivas y relaciones intersectoriales. En general, se observa que el impacto estimado es significativamente mayor en las regiones más expuestas a sectores relacionados con hostelería y restauración, como las insulares. En otras CCAA, que tienden a coincidir con aquellas donde la fabricación de vehículos tiene un peso significativo, el impacto también sería más elevado, debido no solo al cierre de plantas de producción, sino también a su efecto de arrastre sobre otros sectores. En relación con las principales economías de la zona del euro, el impacto agregado de escenarios de confinamiento idénticos en Alemania, Francia y, en menor medida, Italia sería comparativamente inferior que en España. Las diferencias en la estructura productiva y las conexiones intersectoriales hacen que la economía española sea relativamente más vulnerable a un shock de la naturaleza del actual, por su mayor dependencia de aquellos sectores que están resultando especialmente afectados por las medidas de distanciamiento social.

Suggested Citation

  • Elvira Prades Illanes & Patrocinio Tello Casas, 2020. "Heterogeneidad en el impacto económico del Covid-19 entre regiones y países del área del euro," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue 2/2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:joures:y:2020:i:06:d:aa:n:17
    Note: Artículos Analíticos
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    2. Elvira Prades-Illanes & Patrocinio Tello-Casas, 2020. "Spanish regions in Global Value Chains: How important? How different?," Working Papers 2026, Banco de España.
    3. Elie Gerschel & Alejandra Martinez & Isabelle Mejean, 2020. "Propagation of shocks in global value chains: the coronavirus case," Post-Print halshs-02515364, HAL.
    4. Concha Artola & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun & Alejandro Fiorito & Diego Vila, 2018. "Monitoring the Spanish economy from a regional perspective: main elements of analysis," Occasional Papers 1809, Banco de España.
    5. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asier Minondo, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(85), pages 58-76, February.
    2. Antonia Díaz, 2021. "The EU Budget and the Role of Public Goods," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(02), pages 35-38, March.
    3. Niembro, Andrés & Calá, Carla Daniela, 2020. "A first exploratory analysis of the regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3376, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    perturbaciones comunes; confinamiento; Covid-19; vínculos input-output; EUREGIO; análisis regional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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