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Trade Under Lockdown

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Berthou
  • Sebastian Stumpner

Abstract

To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. We estimate the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows, using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral product-level trade flows that covers roughly three quarters of world trade. Our main findings are: (i) Both exporter and importer lockdowns substantially reduced international trade, with importer lockdowns having a stronger impact; (ii) The effect of lockdowns on trade was strongest during the first wave, and has since been declining; (iii) Beyond the direct effect of lockdowns, we find evidence for indirect effects (i.e. lockdowns by third countries) through global value chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Berthou & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "Trade Under Lockdown," Working papers 867, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Valerio Della Corte & Claudio Doria & Giacomo Oddo, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1378-1407, May.
    2. Maria Bas & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Caroline Paunov, 2022. "How Resilient Was Trade to Covid-19?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9652, CESifo.
    3. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    4. Cali,Massimiliano & Ghose,Devaki & Montfaucon,Angella Faith Lapukeni & Ruta,Michele, 2022. "Trade Policy and Exporters’ Resilience : Evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10068, The World Bank.
    5. Katja Zajc Kejžar & Alan Velić & Jože P. Damijan, 2022. "COVID‐19, trade collapse and GVC linkages: European experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3475-3506, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Impact of Lockdowns; Global Value Chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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