IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2022i6p3-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Households’ Consumption Pattern and Saving – Evidence for the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Mariella Nenova

Abstract

Households’ saving jumped up in 2020 as a response to the outburst of the Covid-19 pandemic. The objective of the paper is to analyse the mechanism behind the hike in households’ saving through the changes in their consumption pattern. The analysis makes use of the households’ budget survey annual data for the period 2008-2020 for Bulgaria. Households’ downward adjustment in spending in 2020 followed the pattern of 2009-2010, but the reduction was more pronounced in expenditures on recreation, culture, and education (related both to the Covid-19 restrictive government measures and self-restrain from consumption caused by enhanced health risk) and spending on health (self-restraint). A supposition may be drawn that the enhanced health risk perception and self-restraint might contribute to a relatively elevated saving rate. Subdued consumption of services, most affected by Covid-19 restrictive measures, might sustain at least in the near future and slow down the overall growth rate. Policy measures to boost consumption, particularly of services, may be ineffective.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariella Nenova, 2022. "Households’ Consumption Pattern and Saving – Evidence for the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2022:i:6:p:3-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2022/2022-6/01_Mariella-Nenova.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Yotzov & Daniela Bobeva & Pobeda Loukanova & Nedialko Nestorov, 2020. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Fight against COVID-19: First Estimates, Forecasts, and Conclusions," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-28.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Charles I. Jones, 2020. "Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 111-166.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    5. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Dossche, Maarten & Zlatanos, Stylianos, 2020. "COVID-19 and the increase in household savings: precautionary or forced?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    7. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dhaval M. Dave & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2021. "The Limits of Reopening Policy to Alter Economic Behavior: New Evidence from Texas," NBER Working Papers 28804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Priya Harchandani & Samik Shome, 2022. "Tourism in COVID-19 Pandemic: Consequences and the Way Forward," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 38-57.
    11. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Costs of Deadly Disasters," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 366-370, May.
    12. Nikolay Peykov, 2021. "Structural Changes of Household Expenditures in Bulgaria – Engel’s Law and Baumol’s “Cost Disease”," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 134-155.
    13. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 393-414, September.
    14. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    15. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    16. Carroll, Christopher D. & Toche, Patrick, 2009. "A tractable model of buffer stock saving," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Bobasu, Alina & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2021. "The implications of savings accumulated during the pandemic for the global economic outlook," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    2. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    3. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    4. Néstor Gandelman, 2015. "A Comparison of Saving Rates: Micro Evidence from Seventeen Latin American and Caribbean Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 90556, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Noy, Ilan & Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Becerra, Oscar, 2015. "The Mystery of Saving in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7311, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "Saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 147-159.
    7. World Bank, 2014. "Turkey Public Finance Review : Turkey in Transition--Time for a Fiscal Policy Pivot?," World Bank Publications - Reports 19321, The World Bank Group.
    8. Spånberg, Erik & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2019. "The importance of the financial system for the current account in Sweden: A sectoral approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 91-103.
    9. Ricardo Bebczuk & Eduardo Cavallo, 2016. "Is business saving really none of our business?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(24), pages 2266-2284, May.
    10. Stijn Rocher & Michael Stierle, 2015. "Household saving rates in the EU: Why do they differ so much?," Working Papers 2015.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Gandelman, Néstor, 2015. "A Comparison of Saving Rates: Micro Evidence from Seventeen Latin American and Caribbean Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7136, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 41-58.
    13. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2019. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving:Evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers REM 2019/0110, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Macroeconomic factors in corporate and household saving. Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Dec 2015.
    15. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 0. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence from OECD Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    16. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2020. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence from OECD Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 430-464, September.
    17. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2021. "Macroeconomic disasters and consumption smoothing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2023. "Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data," Staff Working Papers 23-4, Bank of Canada.
    19. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Stechert, Marcel, 2021. "Household saving and fiscal policy: evidence for the euro area from a thick modelling perspective," Working Paper Series 2633, European Central Bank.
    20. Ignacio Hernando & Irene Pablos & Daniel Santabárbara & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Private saving. New cross-country evidencebased on bayesian techniques," Working Papers 1802, Banco de España.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2022:i:6:p:3-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.