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¡°Shifting the Paradigm¡± in Superintelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir A. Masch

    (Risk Evaluation and Management, Inc. 94 Old Smalleytown Rd., Warren, NJ 07059, U.S.A.)

Abstract

Sharply increased uncertainty and possibility of catastrophes warrant a new approach to decision-making. To survive Superintelligence, mankind should downgrade its role - from ¡°an agent¡± that has a will and a preservation goal of its own, to just a tool that yields the power of making decisions to humans ¨C possibly Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO). RCO is a fundamentally novel system dealing with decision-making under radical uncertainty. Instead of ¡°the best strategy¡± RCO constructs a ¡°strategy, most acceptable to decision-makers.¡± RCO develops a number of candidate strategies, filters them and presents to the decision-makers a few reasonably good and safe candidates, easily adaptable to a broad range of future scenarios - likely, ¡°black swan,¡± and even improbable. The final selection of the strategy to be implemented is performed judgmentally by decision-makers. RCO overturns upside down Economics, Operations Research/Management Science, Decision Analysis, Scenario Planning, and Risk Management. The new paradigm of Superintelligence becomes preservation of mankind. RCO is just a toolkit. It can be used in any system. But, as far as this author knows, RCO is presently unique in its capability to deal with radical uncertainty ¨C moreover, by simple operations. It is therefore irreplaceable for Superintelligence.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir A. Masch, 2017. "¡°Shifting the Paradigm¡± in Superintelligence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 8, pages 17-30, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:170202
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pomerol, Jean-Charles, 1997. "Artificial intelligence and human decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 3-25, May.
    2. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    3. Vladimir Masch, 2004. "Return to the “natural” process of decision-making leads to good strategies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 431-462, October.
    4. Vladimir A. Masch, 2013. "Extensions of stochastic multiscenario models for long-range planning under uncertainty," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 43-59, March.
    5. Nick Bostrom, 2013. "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(1), pages 15-31, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial superintelligence; Confidence; Decision analysis; Risk-constrained optimization; Scenario planning; Multiscenario Multicriteria model; Strategic frontier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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