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Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism

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  • Erik Pruyt
  • Jan H. Kwakkel

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  • Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:30:y:2014:i:1-2:p:1-28
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/sdr.1510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Choucri, Nazli & Goldsmith, Daniel & Madnick, Stuart E. & Mistree, Dinsha & Morrison, J. Bradley & Siegel, Michael, 2007. "Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability," Working papers 39650, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    2. Steve Bankes, 1993. "Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 435-449, June.
    3. Lane, David C. & Oliva, Rogelio, 1998. "The greater whole: Towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 214-235, May.
    4. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
    5. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    6. Edward G. Anderson, 2011. "A dynamic model of counterinsurgency policy including the effects of intelligence, public security, popular support, and insurgent experience," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 111-141, April.
    7. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 789-800.
    8. Hamarat, Caner & Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 408-418.
    9. Sterman, John., 1994. "Learning in and about complex systems," Working papers 3660-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erik Pruyt & Willem L. Auping & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Ebola in West Africa: Model-Based Exploration of Social Psychological Effects and Interventions," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 2-14, January.
    2. Edward G. Anderson & David R. Keith & Jose Lopez, 2023. "Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(6), pages 1895-1920, June.
    3. Raj Bridgelall, 2022. "Applying unsupervised machine learning to counterterrorism," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1099-1128, November.
    4. Julie Shortridge & Seth Guikema & Ben Zaitchik, 2017. "Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 323-337, January.
    5. Guido A Veldhuis & Nico M de Reus & Bas MJ Keijser, 2020. "Concept development for comprehensive operations support with modeling and simulation," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(1), pages 99-116, January.
    6. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
    7. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Erik Pruyt & Tushith Islam, 2015. "On generating and exploring the behavior space of complex models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 31(4), pages 220-249, October.
    9. Kwakkel, J.H. & Cunningham, S.C., 2016. "Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 124-134.
    10. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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