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A multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union

Author

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  • Aizhan Bolatbayeva

    (NAC Analytica, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

This paper introduces a multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model consists of five single-country models of the union member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The purpose of the research is to explain the structural relationship between the economies, evaluate the impact of internal and external shocks, and analyze the transmission mechanism of shocks across countries. The single-country models are linked to each other by the equations of bilateral trade and bilateral exchange rate. We find that the model fits actual data on main macroeconomic indicators of the countries in a dynamic ex-post simulation over 2004–2018. We also evaluate the effect of world trade and monetary policy shocks on the economies of the EAEU member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2021. "A multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 7(4), pages 354-370, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:7:y:2021:i:4:p:354-370
    DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.72368
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizhan Bolatbayeva & Alisher Tolepbergen & Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "A macroeconometric model for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 6(2), pages 114-143, June.
    2. Razafindrabe, Tovonony M., 2016. "A multi-country DSGE model with incomplete exchange rate pass-through: An application for the Euro-area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 78-100.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    5. Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2019. "A Two-Country Macroeconometric Model," NAC Analytica Working Paper 5, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Nurdaulet Abilov & Alisher Tolepbergen & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan," NAC Analytica Working Paper 1, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Jul 2019.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasian Economic Union EAEU structural macroeconomic model.;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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