IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajx/wpaper/1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Nurdaulet Abilov

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

  • Alisher Tolepbergen

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

  • Klaus Weyerstrass

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Macroeconomics and Public Finance Group)

Abstract

The paper builds a structural macroeconometric model for Kazakhstan to generate short-term and medium-term forecasts for main macroeconomic variables and conduct scenario analyses based on dynamic simulation of the model. Due to the poor quality of quarterly data on GDP and its expenditure components, they have been adjusted using volume indexes. The model consists of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, labor market, asset market, the central bank policy and government side equations. Most equations are estimated via econometric techniques and identities are explicitly introduced in line with economic theory. We combine all the regression equations into a single model and solve for the baseline scenario from 2003 to 2017. The simulation results show that the structural macroeconometric model approximates Kazakhstani economy reasonably well. Ex-ante forecasts under oil prices remaining around 50 and 60 US dollars per barrel are generated and compared with the baseline forecast of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurdaulet Abilov & Alisher Tolepbergen & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan," NAC Analytica Working Paper 1, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Jul 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nacanalytica.com/images/macro/Papers/A_Macroeconometric_Model_for_Kazakhstan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "An Estimated Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 30-54, March.
    2. Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2021. "A multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 7(4), pages 354-370, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model; Cowles Commission approach; Forecasting; Simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B32 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Obituaries
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alisher Tolepbergen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nacnukz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.