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Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Richardson, James W.
  • Herbst, Brian K.
  • Outlaw, Joe L.
  • Gill, Robert Chope, II

Abstract

The widespread use of personal computers and spreadsheet models for feasibility studies makes risk-based Monte Carlo simulation analysis of proposed investments a relatively simple task. Add-in simulation packages for Microsoft® Excel can be used to make spreadsheet models stochastic. Rather than basing investment decisions on point estimates, investors can easily estimate the implied distributions of returns for uncertain investments and calculate the risk of an investment as well as the probability of success. The benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation to analyze a risky investment are demonstrated using an ethanol plant as an example.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Gill, Robert Chope, II, 2007. "Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 25(2), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:62291
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.62291
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    Cited by:

    1. Vosloo, Jodie, 2021. "A profitability and risk assessment of market strategies for potato producers in South Africa," Research Theses 334757, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2015. "Role of economics in developing fertilizer best management practices," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 251-261.
    3. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Risks in Potato Production: Fertilizer, Water, and Producers’ Decision Making," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162536, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Maisashvili, Aleksandre & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W., 2016. "Economic feasibility of tobacco leaves for biofuel production and high value squalene," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(4), September.
    5. Curtis, Kynda R. & Cowee, Margaret W. & Kim, Man-Keun & Harris, Thomas R., 2010. "Evaluating Returns to Cool Season Grass Quality Characteristics for Niche Equine Feed Markets," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.
    6. Andrew, Rogers & Makindara, Jeremia & Mbaga, Said H. & Alphonce, Roselyne, 2019. "Economic viability of newly introduced chicken strains at village level in Tanzania: FARMSIM model simulation approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Dlamini, Thula S. & Fraser, Gavin C.G., 2010. "Economics of Meat Production from the Springbuck in the Eastern Cape Karoo," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96181, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Thomas R. Harris, 2017. "Incorporating Risk in Analysis of Tax Policies for Solar Power Investments," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 112-118.
    9. Morris, Brittany D. & Richardson, James W. & Frosch, Brian J. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Rooney, William L., 2009. "Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sweet Sorghum Juice in Texas," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46852, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Benavidez, Justin R. & Thayer, Anastasia W. & Anderson, David P., 2019. "Poo Power: Revisiting Biogas Generation Potential on Dairy Farms in Texas," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 682-700, November.
    11. Zapata, Samuel D. & Ribera, Luis A. & Palma, Marco A., 2017. "Effect Of Production Parameters On The Economic Feasibility Of A Biofuel Enterprise," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 347-362, August.
    12. McCorkle, Dean A. & Dudensing, Rebekka M. & Hanselka, Dan & Hellman, Ed W., 2016. "Economics of Robotic Technology in Texas Wine Grape Production," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 230005, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Vorotnikova, Ekaterina & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Evaluation of the profitability of a new precision fungicide application system for strawberry production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 77-88.
    14. Curtis, Kynda R. & Bishop, Carol & Harris, Thomas R., 2009. "Economics of Alternative Crop Production in Arid Regions," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48053, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    15. Yi, Fujin & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Thome, Karen, 2013. "An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Ibrahim L. Kadigi & Khamaldin D. Mutabazi & Damas Philip & James W. Richardson & Jean-Claude Bizimana & Winfred Mbungu & Henry F. Mahoo & Stefan Sieber, 2020. "An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    17. Palma, Marco A. & Richardson, James W. & Roberson, Brad E. & Ribera, Luis A. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Munster, Clyde, 2011. "Economic Feasibility of a Mobile Fast Pyrolysis System for Sustainable Bio-crude Oil Production," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Kim, Man-Keun & Curtis, Kynda R. & Yeager, Irvin, 2014. "An Assessment of Market Strategies for Small-Scale Produce Growers," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, September.
    19. McCorkle, Dean & Dudensing, Rebekka & Hanselka, Dan & Hellman, Ed, 2016. "Evaluating the Potential for Precision Mechanization in U.S. Wine Grape Production," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235880, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Kheiry Ishag, 2015. "Fodder crop re-allocation sustainability and risk efficiency," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.

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