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The Impact of Inflation Targeting on Inflation Volatility in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Irrshad Kaseeram
  • Eleftherios Contogiannis

    (University of Zululand)

Abstract

Using monthly data from 1960 through to January 2010, this study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) and GARCH-M (mean) methodologies to estimate the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on inflation uncertainty as well as to study whether an increase in inflation causes increased uncertainty and whether a rise in uncertainty causes higher inflation. Moreover the study assesses whether Inflation Targeting has influenced a decline in inflation persistence since its adoption. Due to structural breaks the study uses a shorter series and has found that Inflation Targeting has not been successful in reducing monthly inflation uncertainty. Given that uncertainty has been shown to impose real economic costs, the failure of IT to lower uncertainty as well as inflation persistence in South Africa gives a cautionary lesson for other emerging economies contemplating the adoption of an inflation targeting monetary policy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Irrshad Kaseeram & Eleftherios Contogiannis, 2011. "The Impact of Inflation Targeting on Inflation Volatility in South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 13(Conferenc), pages 34-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:conference:p:34-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    2. John Thornton, 2007. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(4), pages 858-870, April.
    3. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M Miller, 2017. "Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 78-103, January.
    3. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2022. "Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa," Working Papers 202254, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    5. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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